Everton vs Nottingham Forest tips and predictions: Stingy Toffees defence to earn crucial win

Premier League betting is a difficult beast to tame. You win some, you lose some. And sometimes you back Everton to get a point and they crap the bed and lose 6-0.

The Toffees are in a sticky situation near the bottom of the table, but they’ll be thankful Nottingham Forest are wedged between themselves and the dropzone.

Saturday’s showdown with the Tricky Trees could help them forge a five-point gap ahead of the Merseyside derby or plunge them deeper into trouble.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have been resilient recently, beating Fulham and pinching points from Luton Town, Crystal Palace, and Wolves.

The biggest problem facing Forest is their inability to keep teams out. They’ve allowed 21 of 22 opponents to score, with 11 sides finding the net at least twice.

Before Tuesday’s collapse at Stamford Bridge, Everton owned the fourth-best defence in the Premier League, limiting nine of 15 visitors to Goodison Park to one or fewer goals.

That’s enough to give them the edge in this type of fixture, which we expect to be cagey and low-scoring, while motivation is also a big factor.

The mauling didn’t quite eclipse their biggest setback in the Premier League era, a 7-0 loss to Arsenal in the 2004/05 season.

They responded to that setback by beating Man Utd 1-0 at Goodison Park the following week and while that has no bearing on this match, the same logic applies.

 

Team news

Dele Alli, Lewis Dobbin, Nathan Patterson and Seamus Coleman are ruled out.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Idrissa Gana Gueye and Jarrad Branthwaite will be assessed on Friday.

Taiwo Awoniyi and Wily Boly remain sidelined for the visitors.

In better news, Anthony Elanga could make a full recovery from the injury he sustained against Tottenham.

 

Key stats

- Everton have kept a clean sheet in seven of their nine wins
- Centre-forwards have scored Everton’s last four goals
- Forest have conceded in 24 of 26 Premier League away matches
- Forest have failed to score in seven of 17 Premier League losses

 

Suggested bets

Everton to win

Beto to score

Under 2.5 goals