Euro 2024 outright tips and predictions: Dark horses and best outside bets
- George Dempsey
- 28 May 2024
There's always a shock or two to be had at the European Championship and this year will be no different. Join us as we grit our teeth and back Croatia, Georgia and others to succeed at Euro 2024
England and France were neck and neck in the betting, yet the Three Lions have taken pole position as expectation grows of a first major trophy since 1966.
Les Blues have lifted the World Cup and the European trophy in the past decade, so wrestling a third crown away from an accomplished side won’t be easy.
Also, Germany are expected to excel on home soil, with the likes of Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz, Jamal Musiala and Leroy Sane in super form this season.
But the usual suspects were well-priced 20 years ago when Greece, 150/1 underdogs, pulled off the biggest upset in international tournament history, beating hosts Portugal in the final.
Join Planet Sport as we run through some outsiders who could spring a surprise or two at Euro 2024.
Suggested bets
Georgia to qualify from Group F
Croatia to reach the semi-finals
Netherlands to reach the quarter-finals
Georgia
Georgia winning the Euros would top anything we’ve seen in international or domestic football. It would even trump Leicester City winning the Premier League.
We aren’t suggesting it will happen, because it won’t. However, we think the potential for a group-stage upset does exist, even if that means just one upset win.
Turkey tend to throw in horrid performances at tournaments and Georgia are capable of frustrating a team, with magician Khvicha Kvaratskheila the most likely goal source.
Portugal and Czechia represent tougher tests, and while the former could run riot, an organised display against the latter could help them to a four-point haul and a sneaky third-place finish.
Croatia
The European Championships rarely fail to throw a curve ball. Even when the bracket allows, four of the top five in the betting rarely feature in the semi-finals.
That’s exactly what happened in 2021 when England, Spain, Italy and Denmark reached the final four. However, seventh-favourites Switzerland came within a spot-kick of crashing the party.
Netherlands (7/1), Portugal (10/1 & 20/1), Czechia (14/1), Italy (16/1), Wales (20/1), Russia (33/1), Turkey (40/1) and Greece (80/1) are nine examples of teams outside the top five in the betting making the semi-finals.
The dark horse we’ve identified for Euro 2024 is Croatia. The most likely route to the semi-finals involves beating Belgium and France, so some shocks are required.
Although Zlatko Dalic’s side may be ageing, they’re extremely well drilled, often overlooked and they’ve made the final three at the last two World Cups.
Netherlands
Six teams are fancied as having a better chance of lifting the trophy than the Netherlands, who have hovered around the 20/1 with most bookmakers throughout May.
They aren’t likely to receive much backing about winning the tournament outright, yet they were just spot kicks away from beating Argentina at the World Cup to set up a winnable semi-final with Croatia.
They’ve lost out by the odd goal to France, Italy and Germany in the past 12 months, looking competitive in all of those matches.
Notably, they’re narrowly odds against to reach the quarter-finals. If they finish second behind France, they’ll likely come up against Ukraine or Romania in the Round of 16.
Italy
Italy are a potential contender and we wouldn’t be surprised if they defend their way to the latter stages of the competition.
They did it at the last Euros and managed to see off England at Wembley against the odds with a solid rearguard action.
They’re sixth in the betting and second favourites to top the group after Spain. However, the Spaniards can make slow starts at tournaments, and they have injuries to contend with.
Italy’s success will be built on clean sheets and in a competitive-looking group, a win against Croatia and Albania could be enough to top the table.
