Euro 2024: Switzerland vs Italy tips and predictions - Stubborn Swiss can dump holders out

Switzerland face Italy in the first Round of 16 fixture in Berlin on Saturday afternoon in a game that could swing either way.

Manuel Locatelli and Ciro Immobile struck when the sides met three years ago, as the Italians prevailed 3-0 in Rome in the group stages of Euro 2020.

That result aside, these teams tend to win or lose by the finest of margins and both were partial to a bit of extra time at the previous tournament.

The Swiss came from 3-1 down to take France to penalties and stun the 2016 finalists, before falling to Spain on penalties in the next round.

Italy saw off Austria, 2-1, in extra time at the same stage and later beat Spain on penalties. We all know what happened next as they won on penalties again.

Decades go by and little changes with the Italians. They’re predictably rigid, hard to beat and often less than spectacular to watch, but they do a job.

 

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Marco Tardelli’s goal beat England 1-0 either side of 0-0 draws in the group stage in 1980 and between Euro 2000 and Euro 2020, their 45 matches averaged just 1.8 goals.

Including their two warm-up matches, their last five outings have produced just seven goals and while they’re still tough to beat, something is missing from this team.

Switzerland are more than capable of exploiting that. They’ve lost once since the World Cup in Qatar and usually make for tough opposition at the Euros.

Because their most recent eliminations came via penalties, Switzerland have lost just once in 13 matches at the competition, which was the defeat to Italy on Italian soil.

We weren’t particularly high on this team pre-tournament, but they’re well-organised and will be enough to compete with this Italian side.

The tournament began with a glut of goals but things have settled down since, with 10 of the last 12 fixtures producing under 2.5 goals, and this should go the same way.

 

Team news

Silvan Widmer is suspended for Switzerland and although they have no natural replacement, Steven Zuber has played the role in the past.

Breel Embolo made his first start against Germany and will surely lead the attack on Saturday.

Italy switched to a back three against Croatia which meant starts for Mateo Retegui and Giacomo Raspadori as Gianluca Scamacca dropped to the bench.

Gianluca Mancini is likely to replace the suspended Ricardo Calafiori.

 

Key stats

- Five of the last six meetings have resulted in a draw
- Both teams have scored in Switzerland’s last six matches at the Euros
- All three of Switzerland’s knockout matches have gone to extra time
- Eight of Switzerland’s last 11 matches at the Euros have been drawn
- There have been under 2.5 goals in 36 of Italy’s 48 matches at the Euros
- Nine of Italy’s 15 knockout matches have gone to extra time or penalties

 

Suggested bets

Winner of tie: Switzerland

Match result: Draw

Under 2.5 goals