Euro 2024: Romania vs Netherlands tips and predictions - Underdogs on the score sheet in an entertaining effort
- George Dempsey
- 1 July 2024
Romania face the Netherlands in Euro 2024’s Round of 16 in Munich on Tuesday evening (1700 BST) and we think the underdogs could contribute to a classic.
Group E winners Romania and Group D’s third-place team, the Netherlands, clash in Munich on Tuesday with the winner progressing to face either Austria or Turkey next.
Neither of these sides finished in the position we expected pre-tournament but in doing so, they’ve set up a fascinating battle between contrasting styles.
The Dutch, in a group featuring France and the technically talented Austrian, averaged 52% possession. On the other hand, the Romanians opted to sit off and defend their box.
Only Georgia produced more clearances in the group stage as Edward Iordanescu’s side enjoyed just 38% of the ball yet looked as dangerous as any side in the group.
Razvan Marin’s stunning strike against Ukraine was the result of a swift counterattack, as was the foul on Ianias Hagi that led to a penalty goal against Slovakia.
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All three goals Austria scored against Ronald Koeman’s side weren’t counterattacks, but they highlighted defensive deficiencies and had a similar feel.
The press was easy to beat, the midfield was disconnected from the defence, and the Dutch were left running at their own goal with disastrous consequences.
That’s a scenario we could see often in this match against a well-organised side that will look to frustrate them for as long as possible.
Another area of concern for Koeman will be chance creation. Missing chances is one thing, but failing to create big chances is an issue. His side rank between England and Italy for xG.
All numbers aside, it’s clear one team is more talented than the others, but we keep seeing the small margins that allow the likes of Romania, Slovakia, Georgia and others to excel.
Germany has provided us with a bizarre tournament so far and we haven’t seen enough from the Dutch to suggest that they’ll come through this match unscathed.
Team news
Left-back Nicusor Bancu is suspended for Romania so Andrei Ratcu may provide cover.
Group stage goalscorers Denis Dragus, Nicolae Stanciu and Razvan Marin will start.
Joer Veerman was hooked after 35 minutes so Xavi Simons, who replaced him, is likely to start on Tuesday.
Key stats
- Romania have lost just two of their last 15 matches across all competitions
- Romania’s last win over the Netherlands was during a Euros qualifier in 2007
- There have been over 2.5 goals in seven of the Netherlands’ last eight matches
- There have been 12 second-half goals in the Netherlands’ last five matches
