Euro 2024 qualifier: Italy vs England verdict, predicted score, key stats and suggested bets
- Matty Briggs
- 21 March 2023
England travel to Naples to kick off their Euro 2024 qualifying against Italy as backable favourites against the European champions. Check out our prediction, verdict and suggested bets for the game.
Date, KO time and TV coverage
Euro 2024 qualifier, Group C, Thursday, March 23, kick-off 7.45pm, live on Channel 4
Predicted score
Italy 0-2 England
Suggested bets
England to win to nil
Harry Kane to score anytime
Key stats
Both teams have scored in five of the last seven encounters
Italy lost 5-2 to Germany in a friendly in June 2022
Four of the last five meetings between these teams have finished level after 90 minutes
England have only lost one of their 27 major tournament qualifiers under Gareth Southgate
Previous meetings
NL: England 0-0 Italy, June, 2022
EC: Italy 1-1 England, July 2021
Fr: England 1-1 Italy, March 2018
Fr: Italy 1-1 England, March 2015
WC: England 1-2 Italy, June 2014
Team news
The uncapped Wladamir Falcone, Alessandro Buongiorno and Mateo Retegui are all hoping to feature. Federico Chiesa will return from injury, but Ciro Immobile and Federico Dimarco are still sidelined. And striker Gianluca Scamacca lacks playing time.
Italy captain Leonardo Bonucci is missing with a leg injury.
Marcus Rashford, Raheem Sterling, Mason Mount and Nick Pope have pulled out of the England squad through injury. Ben White, Fikayo Tomori and Trent Alexander-Arnold did not make it, but Ivan Toney has been included.
Chelsea pair Ben Chilwell and Reece James return to the squad and Marc Guehi is included.
Harry Kane will lead the line with Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden set to start.
Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice will take two of the three midfield slots, with Harry Maguire and John Stones set to resume their defensive partnership.
Recent form
England lost 2-1 to France last time out in the WC quarter-final
Italy defeated Albania 3-1 in a friendly away in November
Italy lost 2-0 to Austria in a friendly in Vienna in November
What has been said?
Roberto Mancini ahead of the Naples clash: "By now Italy vs England has become a classic, a bit like Italy vs Germany. They have been a great national team for some time, full of talented, strong and technical players.
"They have more options than us for many reasons, but in Naples we want to put in a good performance, play well and start these qualifiers well. It will be a tough match as all the others have been, I expect as always good support from the Neapolitan fans."
Gareth Southgate on Euro qualifiers coming on back of World Cup: "That is the big challenge we have got. To go to a World Cup, everyone wanted to be there and the fight for places was immense, the hunger was there and it was clear. Now you have to start again.
"I know exactly where our most senior players are with that challenge: they are ready. The Hendersons, the Kanes, they set the tone for that sort of mentality that is going to be needed.
"We have basically a couple of days on the training pitch to prepare for a humdinger of a game in Naples so we have got to make sure we are ready for that - but I think the players will be ready for that. I know we are ready as a group of staff and it is a good test for us.
"These are the sorts of games where we have to show we can go to these places and win. That is the next step for us as a team."
Verdict
This one is surely a banker on the Pools?
For those too young to understand, the Pools was the original way of betting on football with punters chasing draws for the jackpot. And a quick look at the recent history of this fixture would have you putting this one down as nailed on draw (X).
The last four meetings between these old rivals have ended all square after 90 minutes, including the Euro 2020 final at Wembley, which Italy won on penalties.
That game must be one in which Southgate looks back on with regret. He will never admit it, but had he been braver with his team selection and added in another tracking player or had Jude Bellingham been anywhere near the level he is now, then the Three Lions would have been crowned European champions.
That is history, though, and Italy failed to qualify for the World Cup on the back of that.
England of course marched to Qatar, but found France an immovable object in the quarter-final in Al Khor.
That was England's last outing and don't expect too many changes from that XI with the dependable Harry Maguire, John Stones and Harry Kane providing England's backbone.
Southgate does have options although the irrepressible Marcus Rashford is missing and Raheem Sterling is also out. The likes of Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka and Jack Grealish are not bad replacements.
Jude Bellingham will offer drive from midfield against an Italy side struggling for such options and it's those options which sees the Three Lions go into the game as 6/4 favourites.
The return of Federico Chiesa will be a welcome boost, but Ciro Immobile misses out and Roberto Mancini's forward line looks to lack experience and quality.
We can expect Maguire, who has had two recent run-outs against Real Betis and Fulham, and Stones to keep Italy's fledgling attack quiet, while at the other end, England will fancy their chances of scoring after netting in five of their last seven with the Azzurri.
The last two meetings in the Nations League, however, saw Italy keep two clean sheets. The omitted Giacomo Raspadori's stunning strike separated the sides in Milan in September as a strong England side were relegated from their Nations League group after a 1-0 defeat.
Southgate, though, should see this opening qualifier as a winnable game and if, as expected, England start on the front foot, it could be a straight-forward evening for the Three Lions.
The omission of Serie A-based players Fikayo Tomori and Tammy Abraham tells you all you need to know about Southgate's regard for Italian football.
And an attacking approach should reward England, with their skilful attacking players creating problems for an ageing Italian defence, which Austria dismantled in November.
