Euro 2024: Denmark vs Serbia tips and predictions - Classy Eriksen can carry Danes to Round of 16
- George Dempsey
- 24 June 2024
Denmark must better Slovenia’s result and avoid defeat in Munich on Tuesday (2000 BST) while Serbia know only a win will guarantee qualification
Denmark may feel the quality of their performance and possession was worthy of winning the game against England. They didn’t, so a win against Serbia on Tuesday is necessary to progress.
There’s an outside chance three points could see them qualify for the Round of 16 but a draw is no use to the Serbians who will finish on either one, two or four points.
Although they put in a much-improved performance to the one we saw against England, Dragan Stojkovic’s side spurned multiple quality chances before stealing a late point.
Aleksandar Mitrovic was guilty of missing a hat trick of Opta-defined big chances by the time a speculative corner was headed in by Luka Jovic amid a sea of static white shirts.
In truth, it was a game of two halves. Jovic’s goal was richly deserved and the Serbs should have won it. Interestingly, it was a similar story when Denmark and Slovenia drew 1-1.
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Slovenia had a brief yet promising spell in that match but there’s no question that Denmark did enough to win as Jan Oblak prevented 0.97xG across three saves.
Denmark’s stunning goal against England doesn’t go down as a real chance and their chance creation was sparse against the Three Lions, but we don’t expect that to be the case here.
Their recent defensive record is a slight concern as they’ve kept one clean sheet in 10 European Championship appearances. In addition, they’ve conceded in 14 of 15 matches away from Danish soil.
But Serbia had similar troubles in qualifying. They snuck out of a distinctly average group while allowing nine goals in their last six matches.
This game has the potential to open up if Serbia are desperate late on and that’ll give the Danish midfield, particularly Christian Eriksen, the space they’ve been craving.
Team news
Eriksen has produced 11 key passes in two appearances for Denmark, which is four more than the tournament’s next-best performer.
The unbeaten Danes are likely to field the same side as in their previous matches, spearheaded by Jonas Wind and Rasmus Hojlund.
The major concern for Serbia is Filip Kostic. The Juventus winger was absent from Thursday’s draw with Slovenia.
Despite missing a glut of good chances, Aleksandar Mitrovic will retain his place in the attack.
Dusan Tadic’s presence had a positive impact on Serbia’s chance creation, so he’ll operate behind Mitro alongside Dusan Vlahovic.
Key stats
- Denmark have conceded in their last 10 matches at European Championships
- Denmark have won all three meetings, most recently beating Serbia 3-0 in 2022
- Serbia have failed to win seven of their last 10 matches across all competitions
- Serbia are winless in tournaments since their opening match of the 2018 World Cup
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