EFL Saturday acca tips and predictions: Goals for QPR, Crewe to upset odds, and more…

Football pundit Rhys Tovey, who runs his AGF service on Tipstrr, has been study the form and the stats to come up with his weekly EFL accumulator at combined odds of more than 12/1.

Queens Park Rangers vs Rotherham Utd

It’s a relegation battle at Loftus Road on Saturday as 22nd-placed QPR host bottom-of-the-table Rotherham United, with both sides viewing this match as a must-win game. QPR sit just one point away from safety and their fans will expect to beat the worst team in the league at home.

Rotherham’s hopes of survival look all but impossible, as 14 points separate them from and 21st-placed Millwall with only thirteen matches left to play. Although their home record is nothing to write home about, it is their away record which has left them cast adrift at the bottom. 

The Millers have picked up just four points from 16 away games, winning none and conceding 41 goals. They have conceded two or more goals in thirteen of those sixteen matches on the road. 

Manager Leam Richardson hasn’t been able to change that record since his appointment in December, conceding two or more in five of his six away games (they’ve conceded three or more in four of those games, too).

QPR themselves have had a very poor campaign so far, particularly at home, where they have the worst record in the division (one point worse than Rotherham’s home tally), but there have been some promising signs in recent weeks, with the R’s losing just one of their last six matches. 

At home, they have only managed to score two or more goals five times this season but all of those have been during the reign of current manager Marti Cifuentes, who has only taken charge of eleven matches at Loftus Road. His side have found the back of the net in each of their last six home matches and, with Rotherham’s leaky defence, the home side look more than capable of scoring twice this weekend.

• Suggested bet: QPR over 1.5 goals (20/21)

Blackpool vs Bolton Wanderers

Bolton will be looking to keep up their title challenge this weekend as they make the relatively short trip to Bloomfield Road to take on play-off-chasing Blackpool.

Bolton come into this game in good form having not lost in their last eight games, while on the road this season, they have the fourth best record in the division, suffering just three defeats from their 19 away games in all competitions, winning eleven.

However, their opponents this weekend are no pushovers. Blackpool have the third-best home record in League One, losing only three times, albeit all three of those defeats coming against sides in the top half of the division and they are yet to beat a team in the top six at Bloomfield Road. They are currently on a run of five games without a win at home in all competitions and one win in seven, home and away.

These two sides have met twice already this season; Bolton won the reverse league fixture 1-0 and it was a 0-0 draw when these two played here in the EFL Trophy just under four weeks ago. 

With Bolton on a good run of form and Blackpool, although not losing many games, on a bit of a poor run, backing Bolton at over evens in this one looks a good play, with the safety net of the bet being pushed if it finishes level.

• Suggested bet: Bolton +0.0 AH (21/20)

Notts County vs Crewe Alexandra

Notts County will be looking to halt their slide down the table as they host Crewe Alexandra, whose recent good form has seen them overtake the Magpies.

This bet is a pretty simple selection, backing an in-form team not to lose to an out-of-form side, but despite being favourites with the bookies, Notts County have only won one of their last seven matches. Since Luke Williams’ departure to Swansea at the start of January, County have plummeted down the table, going from title challengers to eighth place.

Crewe’s 2024 has been the complete opposite, losing once in their last ten matches, overtaking Notts County in the table and suddenly finding themselves very much in the title race, sitting just four points off top. They are unbeaten in five away games, a run which includes some very eye-catching results, beating both top-of-the-table Stockport and second placed Mansfield.

With the home side on a poor run of results and the away side on a good run, getting just shy of evens for Crewe to avoid defeat looks very good value.

• Suggested bet: Double Chance: Crewe to win or draw (10/11)

Sutton Utd vs Colchester Utd

With roughly a third of the season left to go, the League Two table is starting to take shape. You have a group of clubs all challenging for automatic promotion, then another larger group, all of whom will aspire to get into the play-off spots. 

At the bottom of the table, there is currently a group of four teams involved in the relegation battle. Colchester currently sit top of that relegation group on 30 points, with this weekend’s opponents Sutton sitting bottom of the table, seven points from safety.

Both Sutton’s and Colchester’s seasons have followed similar paths, with both struggling towards the foot of the table and both making a managerial change at the start of 2024, with just two days separating both appointments. This is the point at which their  paths have started to diverge.

Since Steve Morison became Sutton manager on the 6th of January, he has taken charge of nine matches and failed to win any of them.

Two days prior to Morison’s appointment, Danny Cowley took over at Colchester United, an appointment that was seen as a bit of a coup for the U’s. He has been in the dugout for six matches, only winning once but also only losing once, which was an away defeat at seventh place Harrogate Town.

This selection is a bit of a risky pick. Morison will be aware of Colchester’s poor away record and will be hoping to pick up his first victory as Sutton United boss. However, Sutton have only managed to pick up one more point at home than Colchester have on the road this season, and are also on a poor run defensively, having not kept a clean sheet in eleven matches.

Even though Colchester haven’t been winning games recently, they are still in better form than Sutton. The reverse fixture finished 1-1 earlier in the season and, even though this is a risky play, I think 4/5 is too good to turn down for a selection that will return profit as long as Sutton don’t win, something they have only managed once in their last 18 matches against EFL sides.

• Suggested bet: Colchester +0.25 AH (4/5)

Weekend acca summary:

QPR vs Rotherham   QPR over 1.5 goals (20/21)

Blackpool vs Bolton   Bolton +0.0 AH (21/20)

Notts County vs Crewe  Crewe to win or draw (10/11)

Sutton vs Colchester   Colchester +0.25 AH (4/5)

Back all three selections as singles and/or bundle them together into treble at combined odds of more than 12/1 on Planet Sport Bet (prices subject to change)