EFL Saturday acca tips: Norwich can extend winning home run, Tranmere hungry for goals, plus more...

Rhys Tovey
1 March 2024

There’s another busy weekend of football action ahead, and that means plenty of betting opportunities that can be made even more fruitful by combining them into this week’s accumulator.

Football pundit Rhys Tovey, who runs his AGF service on Tipstrr, looks ahead to Saturday’s EFL clashes to provide a fourfold acca at combined odds of around 10/1.

Norwich City vs Sunderland

The Canaries come into this one in excellent form having won their last four home games. They remain unbeaten in nine at Carrow Road and their only league defeat in the last nine was a 1-0 away defeat at high-flying Leeds United.

David Wagner's team boasts the sixth-best home record in the Championship, with only the top three having won more home games than Norwich’s total of eleven.

Things are far bleaker for visitors Sunderland, where Michael Beale’s disastrous reign as manager recently came to an end after just twelve matches, the shortest managerial stint in Sunderland’s history. They have lost the last three and to make matters worse, star man Jack Clarke has picked up an injury, ruling him out for the next six weeks.

Despite sitting in the top half of the table and only recently falling out of play-off contention, Sunderland have a poor record away from home this season. They sit 17th in the away table, having won just four matches on their travels.

Another bet to catch the eye in this match is Norwich to score over 1.5 goals. They have scored two or more goals in six of their last eight, as well as in six of their last seven at home. Norwich to score two or more goals is available at evens, but I’m siding with them to win the match at similar odds.

Suggested bet: Norwich City to win (10/11)

Fleetwood Town vs Wigan Athletic

After back-to-back wins at the start of February, Fleetwood Town have not won in five league games, arguably making this weekend’s match with Wigan Athletic a must-win. Three teams and eight points currently separate Fleetwood and safety, but both teams that are above them and in the relegation zone have two games in hand.

Despite the table looking bleak for them, Fleetwood’s performances have improved massively under Charlie Adam. They were very unfortunate not to pick up all three points away at Port Vale on Tuesday, drawing 2-2 in a game which they dominated.

On paper, Fleetwood’s struggles appear to stem from their inability to find the back of the net. They have failed to score in 47% of their home matches, which does not look promising for this bet. However, since Adam’s appointment on New Year’s Eve, scoring goals has not been an issue for the Cod Army, having scored in all but one of Adam’s twelve games in charge.

They have scored in each of their last eight matches and in thirteen of their last fifteen, with the only two sides managing a clean sheet against them being league leaders Portsmouth and third-placed Bolton.

At the other end of the pitch, however, there has not been any significant improvement, with Adam’s tenure only managing two clean sheets so far. The visitors to Highbury on Saturday, Wigan Athletic, have the eighth-best attack in the division, meaning a clean sheet for the home side will be a massive ask.

Wigan have scored in all but five of their league games so far, as well as scoring in an impressive 15 of their 17 away matches. They have scored in each of their last 12 league games and will be confident of scoring against the league’s worst defence.

Defensively, Wigan’s numbers do not look too bad at all. They have the 11th-best defence in terms of goals conceded and managed 11 clean sheets. However, eight of those clean sheets have come at home, meaning they have conceded in fourteen of their seventeen away games, averaging 1.53 goals per away trip.

Suggested bet: Both Teams To Score (7/10)

Crawley Town vs Barrow

So far this season, League Two has been an excellent league to bet on both teams to score, with 60% of matches seeing BTTS land, at an average of 2.97 goals per game. All six midweek matches saw both teams score.

These two sides are currently competing for a spot in the play-offs with just four points separating them. The home side, Crawley Town, have scored in 14 of their 17 home matches, as well as nine of the last ten at Broadfield Stadium.

Away sides travelling to Crawley have an identical record at finding the back of the net, with Crawley conceding in 14 home games. Their clean sheet in their most recent home game was their first in 11 and just the sixth of their campaign. This has led to BTTS landing in 65% of Crawley’s home matches.

It makes for incredibly similar reading when looking at Barrow’s away results, where they have scored in 12 of their last 13 away matches and only failed to score five times this season.

They have not kept a clean sheet in their last six on the road, conceding 15 goals in those matches. These stats all add up to BTTS coming in 67% of the time when Barrow play away from home.

Suggested bet: Both Teams To Score (7/10)

Tranmere Rovers vs Sutton Utd

Sutton United picked up a massive win in the week away at out-of-form Notts County, giving them a slight glimmer of hope of surviving the drop. They are now only four points away from safety but have played three games more than 22nd-placed Grimsby Town. It is another tricky away tie for them this weekend as they travel to a Tranmere side who have been prolific at Prenton Park.

Since Nigel Adkins’ appointment earlier this season, Rovers have scored two or more goals in ten of their thirteen home games. This includes a very impressive four goal victory in their last home game against second-in-the-table Stockport County.

Sutton’s defensive numbers have improved since Steve Morison took charge in January, with them conceding two or more goals four times in ten matches (an average of 1.5 goals per game compared to 2.08 before his appointment).

Despite this improvement, their numbers still are not particularly good, and even though they won the match, they did concede three in the week and have not kept a clean sheet since Boxing Day (12 matches) and have only kept two all season. They have conceded two or more goals nine times away from home, as well as on a further seven occasions at home.

More than 80% of Tranmere’s home matches have seen over 2.5 goals scored, meaning that if that record continues this weekend, at least one of these sides must score two goals. With Sutton sitting bottom of the table and needing a result with a poor defensive record defensively, and Tranmere often managing to find the back of the net multiple times, above even money for two or more Tranmere goals looks excellent value.

Suggested bet: Tranmere to score Over 1.5 Goals (21/20)

Weekend acca summary:

Back all four selections as singles and/or bundle them together into an acca at combined odds of more than 10/1 on Planet Sport Bet (prices subject to change).