EFL Saturday acca tips: Ipswich and MK Dons to triumph, goals at QPR and Oxford

EFL football pundit Rhys Tovey, who runs his AGF service on Tipstrr, has stuck his neck out with four combination bets that carry acca odds of 17/2 at the time of writing.

 

Weekend EFL selections:

Ipswich Town to beat Cardiff @ 3/4

Both teams to score QPR vs Middlesbrough @ 3/4

Both teams to score Oxford vs Cheltenham @ 17/20

MK Dons to beat Salford @ 3/4

(all odds correct at time of article publication)

Ipswich to beat Cardiff

Ipswich Town will be looking to stay in the automatic promotion spots this weekend when they travel to South Wales to take on Cardiff City in the early Championship kick off.

After a slight dip in form which saw them pick up just two points from three league games, and lose to non-league Maidstone in the FA Cup, Ipswich have found their rhythm once more, winning six matches in a row.

Their opponents on Saturday, Cardiff City, are in decent form themselves, winning their last three matches.

However, the underlying data suggests that they have been fortunate to pick up all those points. In terms of expected goals scored (xG), Cardiff are the only side in the division to have an average xG difference of -0.5 or worse per match both home and away.

This is the case both over the last six matches and over the whole season (under each club’s current manager).

Over their last three home matches they have averaged -0.76 xG difference and still managed to pick up seven points.

Those matches have been against 17th placed Blackburn Rovers, 21st placed Huddersfield Town and 22nd placed Stoke City. The stats show that they were extremely fortunate to pick up the points that they did against three sides towards the bottom of the table.

Ipswich are currently in a battle for automatic promotion with two other sides, both of whom have already travelled to Cardiff and picked up victories, Leicester winning 2-0 and Leeds winning 3-0. In fact, Cardiff have lost all four home matches that they have played against sides in the top seven.

Despite Cardiff winning their last three matches, I believe Ipswich will not be as wasteful as those teams that Cardiff beat and should pick up the three points on Saturday.

Selection: Ipswich to win @ 3/4

QPR vs Middlesbrough - both teams to score

QPR’s recent strong form, which has seen them lose just once in their last nine matches, has seen them climb out of the relegation zone.

They are still only one point away from danger though, so will see this weekend’s home match against an inconsistent Middlesbrough side as a perfect opportunity to open some space between themselves and the bottom three.

Middlesbrough have only picked up two wins from their last nine, losing five and conceding in all of them. Strangely though, those victories came against 7th placed Norwich last time out and away at top of the table Leicester.

They are a difficult team to predict this season. One thing that has been consistent with them though, particularly away from home, is goals.

Their defence has been poor in recent weeks, not keeping a clean sheet in any of their last ten matches. They have not kept a clean sheet in eleven games away from home and only managed one on the road all season.

They have found the net in all but three of their away games, meaning this bet would have landed in thirteen of their seventeen away games.

It is a bet that has often been successful in this matchup. Both teams have scored in each of the last five meeting between these sides at Loftus Road.

QPR look a good bet to score in this one when you consider not only Middlesbrough’s woeful defensive record away from home, but also the fact that QPR have scored in each of their last seven home matches.

With Middlesbrough averaging 1.76 goals scored per game away from home, it feels like there are more than enough signs pointing to both teams scoring in this one.

Selection: QPR vs Middlesbrough Both Teams To Score @ 3/4

Oxford vs Cheltenham - Both teams to score

These two sides will be desperate for a result on Saturday, with both Oxford and Cheltenham currently needing to leapfrog just one team to be where they want to be in the table, albeit at opposite ends.

Oxford are currently just one place off the play-offs and Cheltenham are just one place off safety.

Both sides are coming into this one out of form having not won in four matches. Oxford have in fact only won twice in thirteen matches.

Despite the poor results, they have still managed to find the back of the net on a regular basis. They have only failed to score three times over their last nineteen matches.

At home, they have scored in eight of manager Des Buckingham’s ten matches, including each of the last five, and fifteen of his twenty in total.

Defensively, they have been awful, conceding in eight home matches in a row. Buckingham has only managed three clean sheets during his tenure.

After a horrific start to the season which saw them fail to score in each of their opening eleven games, Cheltenham’s attack has improved massively.

Under manager Darrell Clarke, Cheltenham have failed to score just six times in twenty-six matches. Despite the improvement upfront, their defence is still struggling, particularly away from home, where they have conceded in ten of Clarke’s twelve matches.

Although both sides are currently out of form, the odds available for both teams to score are higher than I would have expected and looks like excellent value.

Selection: Oxford vs Cheltenham Both Teams To Score @ 17/20

MK Dons to beat Salford

MK Dons host Salford City this weekend and will be looking to continue piling pressure on the sides directly above them in the table where they sit in 5th spot, just two points off the automatic promotion places.

MK Dons have the 2nd best home record in the division, only bettered by Wrexham. What is even more impressive though is that, of their eleven home wins so far, nine have come under manager Mike Williamson, who has only taken charge of twelve games at the Stadium MK.

They have won four of their last five at home, only dropping points in a 1-1 draw with Wrexham. MK Dons have scored two or more goals in eight of their twelve home games under Williamson and managed a very impressive win away at top of the table Mansfield midweek.

As well as MK Dons, Salford have seen an improvement after changing their manager.

Seventeen points from eleven matches since Karl Robinson’s appointment has seen them move comfortably clear of the relegation zone. There have however been a few signs of complacency in recent games.

After going unbeaten in Robinson’s opening eight matches, they were thrashed 5-1 by Mansfield a fortnight ago and have since drawn at home to 22nd Colchester and lost at home to Gillingham.

Salford’s defence has not seen any improvement since Robinson took charge, conceding in each of their last nine and managing just one clean sheet in fifteen games.

With MK Dons being so prolific at home, it is hard to see Salford keeping MK Dons out. The Dons won the reverse match 4-2, the only time these two sides have met, and will be confident of picking up another three points at home.

Selection: MK Dons to win @ 3/4