Chelsea vs Middlesbrough tips and predictions: Clinical Blues to book final spot inside 90 minutes

Just when we thought the days of Chelsea creating and missing a season's worth of chances were gone, they outdid themselves in the first leg of this Carabao Cup semi-final.

Credit must go to Middlesbrough for making such a game of it and bagging a historic 1-0 win at the Riverside Stadium, but it was a tad fortunate.

Boro fans will argue you need a bit of luck against the top teams and we don’t begrudge them that as now we have a mouthwatering second leg to look forward to.

Hayden Hackney’s sharp finishing gave the hosts a 37th-minute lead but had it not been for Cole Palmer’s miss-of-the-season contender, the game would have been level at the break.

The Premier League visitors created some good openings in the first 45 minutes and although they were more controlled in the second half, they couldn’t find a way through.
 

 

Middlesbrough surrendered 80% of the possession after the break and struggled to complete a pass, so it’ll be interesting to see how they approach this tie.

We suspect they’ll have no choice but to sit back, defend, and wait for a moment on the break, which they look capable of doing.

The best example was their trip to Elland Road in which they had 38% possession but scored twice, creating three more big chances.

The last five visitors to Stamford Bridge have been held to an average of 0.52xG but Boro’s superb goalscoring record in the Championship will fill them with confidence.

Michael Carrick’s side have rattled in 23 in 10 away from home via 10 different goalscorers, none of whom are repeat offenders in their previous six.
 

Despite that, this fixture has a peculiar history of only one side scoring in each of the last 10 meetings and 15 of 16.

Boro are more than capable of striking on the break but our preferred bet is for Chelsea to finish the job within 90 minutes.

After all, this is a Premier League team chasing Europe against a Championship team. We’ve seen them put four past Man City and three past Brighton here recently.

They’re more than capable of creating and taking an abundance of chances if they’re properly focused from the start, which after losing the first leg, they should be.

We also think it’s worth a small bet on Cole Palmer scoring. He’s been the catalyst for most of Chelsea’s wins and seems to step up when they need him most.
 

Team news

Robert Sanchez, Reece James, Wesley Fofana, Marc Cucurella, Romeo Lavia, Lesley Ugochukwu and Christopher Nkunku are ruled out.

Nicolas Jackson is now on international duty at the African Cup of Nations.

Darragh Lenihan, Tom Smith, Alex Bangura and Emmanuel Latte Lath are unavailable for Middlesbrough due to injury,

In a further blow, the visitors will also be without a trio of players on international duty. Riley McGree, Sam Silvera and goalkeeper Seny Dieng are away with their countries.
 

Key Stats

- Chelsea have outscored their last eight Championship visitors 23-1
- Only one team has scored in 10 straight meetings and 15 of 16
- Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in their last eight home games with Boro
- Middlesbrough have scored 23 goals in their last 10 away games
 

Suggested bets

Chelsea -1.5 Asian handicap

Cole Palmer to score