Carlisle United vs Bradford City verdict, predicted score, key stats and suggested bets
- Matty Briggs
- 19 May 2023
Bradford City head north to Carlisle with a one-goal advantage from the first leg of the League Two play-off semi-final as they look to book their place at Wembley.
Jamie Walker's goal separates the two sides ahead of the return match at Brunton Park.
Date, KO time and TV coverage
League Two play-offs, semi-final second leg, Saturday May 20, Kick-off 3pm, live on Sky Sports
Predicted score
Suggested betting tips
Key Stats
Bradford lost 1-0 to Carlisle at Brunton Park on Boxing Day
No team conceded fewer that the 20 goals Bradford conceded away in L2
Bradford kept five clean sheets in their last nine away games
Carlisle won just one of their last six L2 games
Carlisle won three of their last nine home games in L2
Carlisle/Bradford team news
John-Kymani Gordon is available again after suspension. Morgan Feeney is still missing and Lewis Guy (arm) should be fit after starting in the first leg.
Joel Senior and Joe Garner started at Valley Parade at the expense of Jack Robinson and Kristian Dennis and Paul Simpson must decide on whether to stick with those two.
Ryan Edmondson, Taylor Charters and Jordan Gibson are all in the frame. Jon Mellish is banned.
Bradford have reported no new injuries and could be unchanged. Mark Hughes will go for the experienced heads of Richie Smallwood, Adam Clayton and Jamie Walker in his starting line-up.
Play-off verdict
The first leg between these two sides was a very evenly matched game and the return leg will be another close encounter.
Bradford have their noses ahead and will be confident of shutting out at Carlisle side, who have failed to fire in the final weeks of the season.
Carlisle boss Paul Simpson has attempted to pile the pressure on the Bantams with his attempt at mind games, saying the tie is "theirs to lose".
"It's ours to win and it's theirs to lose. So it's how do they go about it? I know how we have to go - we've got to go and win the game. It's up to them how they do it," said Simpson.
But it's not quite that simple. The 'nothing to lose' theory is not quite correct, because the Cumbrians are on their home patch knowing anything less than a win will see them knocked out.
If they go gung-ho from the off then Bradford have enough shrewd operators, including 28-goal League Two top scorer Andy Cook, to take advantage of the space. While a too negative approach could give the initiative to the visitors, who lost just six times away from home all season.
Mark Hughes' side have been pragmatic all season and that has served them well away from Valley Parade. Against the top teams away they have a solid record - winning at Stevenage, Mansfield, Salford and Northampton and drawing with Stockport, losing only to Orient.
However, they did lose 1-0 at Carlisle in December in what Hughes has described as one of their worst away performances under his tenure.
There's no doubt that Bradford (12/5) will be defensive in their mindset with a hard-working midfield trio of Smallwood, Clayton and Alex Gillied. But they do have quality in forward areas and Cook, who has fired a blank in his last two, has not gone longer than that without scoring since January.
In attack Bradford also have the neat link-up play of Walker, while Palace loanee Scott Banks loves to cut inside and get shots away.
Carlisle (21/20) know that a win by two goals will put them through but they have struggled against the better teams on home soil. The last two months of the season saw them draw with Stevenage, Northampton and Stockport, while they lost 3-2 to Salford.
They also lost at home to champions Orient and were humbled 4-0 by Mansfied, so their home efforts against the best in the division have been poor. They will have to raise their game again after losing out in West Yorkshire - and against the division's best defence to boot.
It's a semi-final which is balanced on a knife edge and one in which goals and chances will be few and far between. So backing the unders at 3/5 looks to be the angle and a draw is likely to ensue.
