Bundesliga preview and tips: Koln looking to stop the rot at in-form Augsburg
- Paul Bathurst
- 7 April 2023
Tipstrr football pundit casts his expert eye over the Bundesliga action, and believes Koln can bounce back from recent results to ease their relegation concerns at Augsburg on Saturday (14:30 BST).
Augsburg have begun to pick up points at the right time, allowing them to steer away from the relegation zone. Four wins and two draws since the winter break included successive 1-0 home wins against Borussia Monchengladbach, Bayer Leverkusen and Hoffenheim, followed by a 2-1 victory over Werder Bremer to give them a solid platform for survival.
Meanwhile, Koln have hit some poor form in recent weeks which has seen them make a rapid drop down the table. Just a single goal in their last six league games is alarming and that goal was a mere consolation in a 6-1 defeat at Dortmund.
Manager Stefan Baumgart will point to a horrific injury list as the key issue, although they have played better than results suggest when the metrics are considered.
Thankfully for Baumgart, Dejan Ljubicic was able to enjoy 30 minutes on the pitch last weekend in their 0-0 draw away at Gladbach. The Austrian midfielder has returned from his knee injury sooner than expected - whether he plays from the start or again comes off the bench, it is a big plus for Koln.
They come across an Augsburg side that earned a 2-2 draw away at Wolfsburg last weekend, but will have felt disappointed to have conceded with the final touch of the game.
However, anybody who watched this match will be aware that Wolfsburg should have won comfortably, with Augsburg scoring twice from 0.44xG, while Wolfsburg created a huge 3.60xG including a missed penalty from Max Arnold.
The game before, Augsburg drew 1-1 at home to struggling Schalke, again a fortunate point statistically with an xG score of 0.42 against 1.90. Again, a similar story unfolded in their 2-1 win at home to Werder Bremen, Augsburg deserved to lose that game with 0.85xG created compared with 1.60xG of their opponents.
No side in the league has created less chances than Augsburg (119) and they are also overperforming to their xG- unless a side possesses a world-class finisher, these statistics will eventually lead to the deserved results.
Augsburg do not possess that elusive world-class finisher, although they do boast two very capable goal scorers in Mergim Berisha (9 goals from 19 starts this season) and Bosnian Ermedin Demirovic (seven goals and four assists). Demirovic received a straight red card for a dangerous tackle against Schalke back in March and remains unavailable this week as he serves his second match of a three-game suspension.
It is very clear that while Augsburg have collected a brilliant return of points from recent games, they have been very fortunate to have done so, whereas the opposite can be said of FC Koln.
If this game took place six weeks ago, it's likely Koln would be stronger favourites to win this match although the conditions at present have created a draw-no-bet line for this fixture.
The return of Ljubicic for Koln will have a positive impact for them, taking the away side on the draw-no-bet line (or 0 Asian Handicap which is the same thing) could be the smart play in this one.
