Bristol City vs Nottingham Forest tips and predictions: Chris Wood pivotal in helping visitors avoid cupset

Bristol City went toe to toe with Premier League West Ham over 180 minutes in the third round and emerged 1-0 winners at Ashton Gate after a 1-1 draw in London.

Both of those results were somewhat predictable in the build-up to the game and it became apparent that the Hammers weren’t that focused for the second meeting.

Nottingham Forest needed extra time after a pair of draws against League One Blackpool, but the Premier League side could have easily won both ties.

They were comfortably the better side on and off the ball for 135 minutes and created enough chance to come back and win the game in the first meeting.

The path these teams have taken to reach this point is creating a bit of a buzz about another shock in the making, but we’re not so sure.

Interestingly, teams can close a gap in quality by being clinical beyond their usual level when they know beforehand they’ll have to take their chance.

But over the two meetings, Nottingham Forest created an xG that typically would have seen them outscore the Seasiders 5-1.

The Robins were good value for the win in an evenly contested game at Ashton Gate because they had that extra edge, but the Hammers created high-quality chances at home.

Four big chances went begging and they would have expected to lead 2-0 before Tommy Conway was able to draw the visitor's level.

It’s worth highlighting these facts, particularly this weekend because that’s often the story when a team in a lower league progressed from an FA Cup tie.

The hosts will be playing their sixth game in January, which is two more than Forest, and their third against a top-flight team.

They’ve gone winless in four league matches either side of their FA Cup ties, which took a lot out of them, so to match Premier League opposition for a third time looks a challenge.

We also think that the Hammers’ diminutive forward line was crowded out well in and around the box, but Chris Wood presents a much more suitable threat.

 

Team news

Mark Sykes, Kal Naismith, Rob Atkinson and Ayman Benarous all missed Saturday’s draw with Watford and remain absent for Bristol City.

The youthful front trio of Jason Knight, Scott Twine and Tommy Conway are likely to reprise their role as the host's most advanced players.

Felipe, Nuno Tavares and Taiwo Awoniyi are ruled out while Morgan Gibbs-White, Anthony Elanga and Divock Origi are doubts.

Ibrahim Sangare, Ola Aina, Moussa Niakhate, Cheikhou Kouyate, Willy Boly and Serge Aurier are on international duty at the African Cup of Nations.

 

Key stats

- Bristol City had lost five straight home cup ties against Premier League opposition before beating West Ham 1-0
- Forest were unbeaten in five under Nuno Espirito Santo before losing 3-2 to Brentford
- Forest are unbeaten in four trips to Bristol and seven of nine in this fixture
- Forest have scored 12 goals in their last five matches

 

Suggested bets

Nottingham Forest to win

Chris Wood to score