Seven wins from seven will hand Liverpool Premier League title - if run-in stats are to be believed

Matt Whiley
11 April 2022

Liverpool to pip Manchester City to the title by two points when head to head records and form are taken into account.

Well…what an absolute cracker of a game that was at the Etihad! Got your breath back yet?

Good, although in fact, you needn't have bothered, frankly, because it's only going to get more thrilling from here on in. The Premier League's two best teams each have seven games remaining, so strap in.

It should be a title race that will go down in top-flight folklore, so Matt Whiley takes a look at both sides' remaining games, and, using some good old-fashioned stats, predicts who will come out on top.

The reigning champions: Manchester City

Remaining games: Brighton (h), Watford (h), Leeds (a), Newcastle (h), West Ham (a), Aston Villa (h), Wolves* (a)

City continue their run-in with a home fixture against Brighton, a side they have won nine of their last ten games against, and by an aggregate score of 28-6. Goals from Phil Foden - who netted a brace - Ilkay Gundogan, and Riyad Mahrez handed Pep Guardiola's men a 4-1 victory in the reverse fixture. With that in mind, plus the fact that Brighton have never beaten City at either Maine Road or the Etihad we have to call this one for the table-toppers.

Next up is Watford, and City's recent record against them has been even more convincing than against Brighton. The last time the Hornets won against City was in March 1989, and the last 14 clashes have all gone the way of the Mancunians, by an astounding aggregate score of 53-7. Three more points for City here.

After that, Guardiola takes his side across the Pennines to face Leeds, and on past results, things do get more interesting. The Whites have won five of the last 11 clashes between the two, but throughout history, it has been a mixed bag - in fact, the longest run of the same result in this fixture was the six wins in a row City achieved between 1924 and 1928; considering they've played each other a total of 107 times, six in a row suddenly doesn't seem so dominant! However, today's Leeds are shocking, as borne out by their 7-0 crushing at the Etihad earlier this season. Another City win on the cards here.

Beyond that, City take on newly-minted Newcastle, who they share a similarly long history with, having faced them 185 times previously, but recent history is more decisive. Just one Magpies win in the last 13 encounters tells you what you need to know, and City have put four past Newcastle in both of their last two games. They're not dropping any points here, either.

We'll mention the as-yet-unscheduled clash with Wolves at this point too; City do still have to face Bruno Lage's men at Molineux, but the date has not been confirmed yet after other commitments caused it to be moved. In any case, City have won their last three in a row against Wolves, but - and it's a big but - had lost the three before that. Although Wolves' defence has proven solid this season, conceding the fourth-fewest goals in the league, City are top in the away form charts, and should have enough to come through in Wolverhampton.

Then comes the particularly interesting clash, and one that many Liverpool fans will have one eye on. City go south to the capital to face top-four challengers West Ham, and given how poor the Irons had been up until around 18 months ago, past results don't reveal much. However, what does give us a pointer in this one is that West Ham score more often at home - 29 goals in 16 games at home, compared to 21 away - and have more points. If there's one game City might slip up, the stats show that this could be it. Let's go for a draw here.

The final-day task for Guardiola is a home tie against none other than Aston Villa, managed by former Liverpool midfielder Steven Gerrard. Honestly, you can hear the narratives being written from here. The last time City played Villa, Gerrard had just taken over, and City were made to work extremely hard for a tight win at Villa Park. This time though, City are the hosts, and given that only Everton have outright lost more games away from home this season than Villa, who are joint with Norwich, this one is another that's only going one way.

Final points: 93

The challengers: Liverpool

Remaining games: Manchester United (h), Everton (h), Newcastle (a), Tottenham (h), Aston Villa (a), Southampton (h), Wolves (h)

On the face of it, Liverpool have a much tougher run-in, and they start that in earnest when they take on bitter rivals Manchester United at Anfield next week. After his side lost to Everton, Ralf Rangnick now has the lowest win percentage of any United manager in the Premier League era, at 40.91%, but that all goes out of the window when these old rivals meet. Liverpool have, though, lost just two of their last 14 meetings with the Red Devils, so with home advantage and so much to play for at a time when United look lost, this one is a Liverpool win.

The rivalries don't stop there, though, as Jurgen Klopp's men then welcome neighbours Everton to Anfield. However, if United look a bit lost, then the Toffees are seriously stricken. Just four points above the relegation zone and with the worst away form in the division, having picked up just six points from 15 games on the road, Frank Lampard's side are in huge trouble. Derbies are never easy, but the stats are pointing to another Reds win here.

After that, Newcastle also take on the Reds, and their recent resurgence thanks to both Eddie Howe and plenty of January money makes this one potentially interesting. The Magpies have won their last four in a row at St James' Park, and haven't lost at home in six games, with City being the last team to win there, back in December. It clearly now takes a very good side to win in the north-east, but Reds fans may want to take solace in the fact Howe's side have crumbled recently against good opposition, losing 5-1 to Tottenham just last week. A slip-up is very much on the cards, but let's give Liverpool three more points here.

Talking of Tottenham, that's exactly who come to Anfield after that, and that will be another tough one, especially after what Antonio Conte's side did to Guardiola at the Etihad back in February. However, Liverpool have the firm upper hand recently, unbeaten against Spurs in nine games, and with away form that reads eight wins, two draws, and six defeats this season, Conte's side are looking too much like a mixed bag to beat the Reds at Anfield. Three more for Klopp and co.

The fascinating narrative continues next, as Gerrard attempts to defeat Liverpool (yes, I know!) when the challengers arrive in Birmingham to face Aston Villa. Should the Reds win, it will be their 100th victory over Villa in history, though it's definitely doubtful as to whether that stat will be their primary motivation!

Again, though, Klopp will need all his guile to get something out of this one, especially after Gerrard did almost pull off a bank robbery at Anfield in December, when Liverpool needed a Mo Salah penalty to squeak past Villa. That said, they've not looked brilliant of late, losing their last four, so we'll make it five Reds victories back-to-back.

Southampton then arrive at Anfield for the penultimate game of the season. Ralph Hasenhuttl's men have a far better record at home than they do away, so Klopp will be glad this one is at Anfield, a place where the Saints haven't won in the league in almost ten years. The Reds have conceded just five goals in their last 13 meetings with Southampton, too. Saints will have little to play for, so it's another three points for the Reds.

Moving on to that final clash of the season, the date on which the title will likely be decided, Bruno Lage brings his Wolves side to Anfield. Liverpool also played Wolves on the final day the last time the title race went down to the wire, in 2019, when despite a 2-0 win, the trophy went to City. This time, though, Klopp can use the inspiration of six wins from their last six against Wolves, coupled with the fact they've conceded just once in those games, to see them over the line and to a superb come-from-behind title success.

Final points: 94 (champions)