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Premier League tips, October 18: Brighton can make possession count and give De Zerbi first win

Roberto De Zerbi

Check out our key stats and suggested bets for Tuesday night’s Premier League action which sees Nottingham Forest travel to Brighton and Crystal Palace play hosts to Wolves.

Brighton vs Nottingham Forest

Brighton fans must have come away from Brentford on Friday night scratching their heads.
After 21 goal attempts and 72% possession, the Seagulls faithful might have expected more than a 2-0 defeat. In truth, Ivan Toney's brilliance probably turned the game in the favour of the hosts, as Brighton characteristically failed to finish their chances.

It was also a feature of Graham Potter's Brighton. They simply did not have the deadly number nine to reward their approach play with goals. And it's no surprise that new boss Roberto de Zerbi has the same issues on the south coast.

He has only been in charge for three games and is yet to chalk up a victory. However, the 3-3 draw against Liverpool was a brilliant first performance under De Zerbi, who on another night would have left Anfield with a victory.

They were more than a match for Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool, while they also had better possession stats and more shots than Spurs in their 1-0 home defeat last weekend.

Tuesday's home date with struggling Forest will give them the perfect chance to get a first win for De Zerbi, who did identify one unsatisfactory aspect at Brentford.

He said his side lost too many second balls against a competitive Bees side and that will have to be put right against Forest.
Brighton are a best-priced 2/5 to send Forest to their eighth defeat of the Premier League season and they look worth backing on the handicap.
Forest came off second best against Wolves on Saturday, but there was little between the two sides. Both are struggling at the foot of the table and the Molineux clash was low on quality.
Forest have lost six of their last seven games and away from home they cannot buy a goal. They have scored only once away in four games and they look like being starved of possession at The Amex.

Steve Cooper has doubts over wing-backs Serge Aurier and Renan Lodi and he could have to switch around a shaky defensive line.

Crystal Palace vs Wolves

This fixture does not have the look of a classic and if you are an under 2.5 goals punter this is one to mark your card with.

Crystal Palace were held to a 0-0 draw with Leicester on Saturday in a pretty dull affair. Palace managed only one shot on target against the struggling Foxes and Patrick Vieira felt the need to defend his side afterwards.

"I believe that question is a lack of respect for Leicester City Football Club with the quality of the team and the players that they have," said Vieira.
His Palace side have won only one of their last six league games and scored only six goals in that time. They are yet to hit their stride this season, but will be more forward-thinking at home against Wolves.
Caretaker Wolves boss Steve Davis hopes the 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest "will kick-start the season for us".
But that crucial win at Molineux was hardly a comprehensive showing and had Brennan Johnson not missed his penalty the game would have ended all square.
Goals have been an issue for Wolves, especially away from home. Their last away goal was at Leeds on the opening day of the season, but Palace have struggled for clean sheets at Selhurst Park.
Still, it's hard to see there being a goal fest in south London on Tuesday and goals will be hard to come by.

Key stats

Nottingham Forest haven't scored in four of their five away PL matches this season
Nottingham Forest have conceded a goal in each of their last seven matches
The last meeting between the sides (2017) Nottingham Forest won 3-0
Brighton have seen over 2.5 goals in their last three matches against Nottingham Forest
Steve Cook has four bookings this season
Crystal Palace won both games against Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0 last season
Wolves have not scored in four of their five away PL matches this season
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches against Wolves in all competitions
Wolves have lost five of their last six away PL matches

Suggested bets

Brighton (-1) on the handicap
Brighton to score in both halves
Steve Cook to be carded
Crystal Palace vs Wolves under 2.5 goals
Crystal Palace to win 1-0

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