Paris Saint-Germain are there to be shot at as Champions League resumes with the knockout stages
- Andy Schooler
- 13 February 2022
Ahead of the return of the Champions League, Andy Schooler takes a stats-based look at what’s gone before - and it doesn’t make good reading for PSG.
The French giants are still chasing that elusive European title but their group-stage data suggests they will miss out once again.
Defending champions Chelsea look in much better health though, while could Ajax be about to stage another deep run, just as they did in 2018/19?
Are PSG going to flop again?
The way money has been pumped into Paris Saint-Germain by the Qataris over the past decade - essentially to compete with the Abu Dhabi-backed Manchester City - has something of the Cold War arms race about it.
And, indeed, so far there have been no winners - at least at Europe's top table.
Like City, PSG remain without a Champions League trophy but they were certainly hoping that would change this season when they made a series of high-profile summer signings, including Sergio Ramos, Gianluigi Donnarumma and Gini Wijnaldum.
Of course, none was bigger than Lionel Messi but during the group stage it's fair to say he was below the incredibly-high standards he's set in this competition for Barcelona over the years.
PSG forward Lionel Messi (34) has hit the frame of the goal 8 times this season, 7 times in Ligue 1 and once in the Champions League, that's the most of any player in Europe's top 5 leagues.
— Get French Football News (@GFFN) February 9, 2022
He managed only 15 shots in his five games and while critics will point out he still scored five goals, that's a relatively poor return for the Argentine, who has regularly managed to hit six-plus and in 2016/17 smashed no fewer than 10.
For the record, Cristiano Ronaldo holds the record for group-stage goals in a single campaign - 11 for Real Madrid in 2015/16.
After much summer activity, boss Mauricio Pochettino will hope his revamped team has now gelled as they head into the knockout stage but there's little doubt he'll want more from Messi - not to mention Neymar and Kylian Mbappe - in the big games that lie ahead.
Keep it tight to triumph
Defences win trophies, or so they say.
It was certainly true last season in the Champions League.
Despite playing more games than anyone else in the competition, the two finalists conceded the fewest goals of all the teams - winners Chelsea let in just four and Manchester City five.
Recall May's final and the manner of Chelsea's performance in that match was very much in keeping with that statistic as they restricted City to few chances.
It's worth noting that both teams were also in the top six for fewest shots conceded.
This season, Chelsea's numbers are again strong. They've conceded just four goals - only Bayern Munich and Real Madrid were more solid in the group stage.
The Blues are also in an impressive position when it comes to shots conceded - just 44 across their six games, the fourth-best record.
It is the usual suspects heading that list with the teams above Chelsea being Bayern (42), City and Liverpool (both 43).
Those rankings bring more bad news for PSG though.
They conceded a whopping 99 shots in their six matches. In terms of the more important number, they let in eight goals but that high shots-conceded figure helps show why their expected goals against is almost 11.
In short, that underlying data is another reason to suggest things are likely to go pear-shaped for the Parisians this spring.
A fairy tale with a proper ending this time?
Those at Ajax who competed in this competition in 2018/19 must still be kicking themselves about not making the final.
Remember they led Spurs 2-0 on aggregate in the semi-finals with 35 minutes of the home second leg remaining. Then Lucas Moura appeared, most notably in the sixth minute of injury time.
Of course, there aren't actually many who do remain, stars such as Frenkie de Jong and Matthijs de Ligt soon moving on, followed by the likes of Hakim Ziyech and Donny van de Beek.
It was a highly impressive side that didn't get the credit it deserves but with the Dutch club being so well run - keeping head coach Erik ten Haag despite huge interest from elsewhere has been massive - a new side has emerged and it is also promising much, certainly based on group-stage performances.
Sebastien Haller, who spent most of his time at West Ham looking miserable, was the man making the headlines with 10 goals, just one shy of Ronaldo's record of 11.
But in true Ajax style, this is no one-man team.
Dusan Tadic is a survivor from that semi-final side and he's the assists king in the Eredivisie this season.
Imports Lisandro Martinez, Edson Alvarez and Antony have all caught the eye, while a new Dutch breed has also emerged from the famous academy, led by teenage midfielder Ryan Gravenberch and defender Jurrien Timber. They could well be the 2022 versions of De Jong and De Ligt.
Only Bayern scored more group-stage goals and the perennial underdogs look ready to give the knockout stage a good go too.
Quality over quantity
Plenty of figures have been quoted in this piece so far but when using data you have to be aware that it is not the be all and end all.
Quality not quantity is a phrase that springs to mind and a team which does likewise in relation to this season's Champions League is Inter Milan.
The Italian champions out-shot every team in the group stage, while their striker Lautaro Martinez was top of the individual shot charts.
But what did that translate into?
Well, Inter scored just eight goals (only three teams scored fewer in reaching the last 16), while Martinez failed to find the net at all with only six of his 25 shots hitting the target.
Liverpool won't be too worried ahead of the sides' forthcoming tie.
Fight hard, get stuck in
There are still plenty of fans out there - heck, even some managers - who will tell you the team prepared to fight the hardest will be the one to emerge victorious.
If that's the case, then maybe Red Bull Salzburg, not Ajax, are the dark horses heading into the Champions League group stage.
Their midfielders Brenden Aaronson and Nicolas Seiwald were two of the hardest-working players in the group stage, both finishing in the top five for distance covered.
Salzburg also showed their propensity for a battle by committing the most fouls.
Another metric which shows how they are capable of causing problems for opponents is the 'most fouled' list.
While Sporting Lisbon were actually the most-fouled team, Salzburg's Mohamed Camara (17) was the most-fouled player with team-mate Karim Adeyemi joint second, alongside Neymar. For the record, the Premier League player ranked highest was Man City's Riyad Mahrez.
For those who like a hard-fought game, you may also want to keep an eye on Lille - who picked up the most cards in the group stage - and the Portuguese sides, Sporting and Benfica.
Benfica have made more tackles than any of the other last-16 sides (90) with Sporting next on 87.
Sporting's Joao Palhinha has made 25 of those (the most of those left) and also racked up 20 fouls in his five games (again the most).
The Portuguese probably aren't going to win the Champions League but they look sure to go down fighting.
