Liverpool would be top if Premier League reverted to two points for a win - and Everton doomed

Paul Okey
27 April 2022

Three points for a win was introduced for the 1980/81 season in an effort to eradicate bore draws but has it worked, and how would the 2021/22 table look if wins were only worth two points?

Crystal Palace's 0-0 draw with Leeds United on Monday night edged the West Yorkshire side a point closer to safety. However, despite three points being on offer for a victory, Leeds' approach, and that of Everton at Liverpool the previous day, suggested one point was still the sum total of their ambitions.

So, does that mean three points for a win has not had the transformative impact on the game it was meant to?

Planet Sport crunches the numbers and also looks at how the current Premier League table would shape up if it was only two points for a victory.

Prior to three points for a win

In the ten Division One seasons preceding three points for a win, draws averaged out at 28.7% a season, with the 1973/74 campaign seeing 149 of the 462 games (32.2%) ending in stalemates.

The 1978/79 season also featured 144 draws (31.2%), with Norwich City setting a record, with 23 draws from their 42 games - they finished 16th of 22.

Goals per game averaged out at 2.57 across the period.

The most common scorelines were 1-0 and 1-1, though 1979/80 saw 0-0s hold sway with 57.

Season	Matches	Draws (%)	Goal average	Most common
1971/72	462	27.9	2.51	1-0
1972/73	462	28.1	2.51	1-1
1973/74	462	32.3	2.4	1-1
1974/75	462	26.8	2.63	1-1
1975/76	462	27.5	2.66	1-1
1976/77	462	29.7	2.56	1-0
1977/78	462	28.6	2.66	1-0
1978/79	462	31.2	2.63	1-1
1979/80	462	29.0	2.51	0-0
1980/81	462	25.5	2.66	1-0

Immediately after the introduction of three points for a win - 1981/82 to 1991/92

Surprisingly, the first season after the introduction of three points for a win saw draws actually increase from 25.5% in 1980/81 to 26.2% in 1981/82. Goals per game also dipped from 2.66 to 2.54, while 1-1 was again the most popular scoreline.

However, in the 11 seasons between the introduction of three points for a win and the inaugural Premier League, draws dipped on average from 28.7% to 26.6%. Meanwhile, goal output increased from 2.57 per game to 2.65. And in a rare break from 1-0s and 1-1s, a 2-1 home win proved the most prevalent in 1990/91.

Season	Matches	Draws (%)	Goal average	Most common
1981/82	462	26.2	2.54	1-1
1982/83	462	24.0	2.74	1-0
1983/84	462	25.5	2.71	1-1
1984/85	462	23.2	2.79	1-1
1985/86	462	23.8	2.79	1-0
1986/87	462	26.6	2.63	1-1
1987/88	420	31.4	2.5	1-1
1988/89	380	29.5	2.53	1-1
1989/90	380	26.1	2.59	1-1
1990/91	380	27.1	2.76	2-1
1991/92	462	29.2	2.54	1-1

The start of the Premier League - 1992/93 to present day

The first seven seasons of the Premier League saw an upturn in draws, with averages topping 30% in three of the campaigns to push the average for the period to 28.6% - on a par with pre three points for a win levels. The 1998/99 season even saw 0-0 proving the most popular scoreline with 49 of the 380 matches ending goalless.

Season	Matches	Draws (%)	Goal average	Most common
1992/93	462	28.1	2.65	1-1
1993/94	462	30.7	2.59	1-1
1994/95	462	29.0	2.59	1-1
1995/96	380	25.8	2.6	1-0
1996/97	380	31.3	2.55	1-1
1997/98	380	25.0	2.68	1-0
1998/99	380	30.2	2.52	0-0
1999/2000	380	24.2	2.79	1-1
2000/01	380	26.6	2.61	1-1
2001/02	380	26.6	2.63	1-1
2002/03	380	23.7	2.63	1-0
2003/04	380	28.4	2.66	1-1
2004/05	380	29.0	2.56	1-1
2005/06	380	20.1	2.48	1-0
2006/07	380	25.8	2.45	1-1
2007/08	380	26.3	2.64	1-1
2008/09	380	25.5	2.48	1-0

However, over the 30 seasons of the Premier League draws are down on the two previous study groups, at 25.1%. This has been even more marked over the last nine seasons, with draws dropping to just 23.3%.

Among those was the 2018/19 season which yielded only 71 draws (12 of which featured Southampton) for an average of just 18.7%. It also saw 2-0 as the most popular outcome.

Goals per game are virtually unchanged since the advent of three points for a win, although there has been a pick-up since the 2009/10 season, which saw a 2-1 home win as the most popular scoreline.

The 13 seasons including that one and this have seen goals per game rise to 2.75.

Surprisingly, the average number of games with three or more goals is exactly the same this season as it was in the last season of two points for a win - 52%.

Season	Matches	Draws (%)	Goal average	Most common
2009/10	380	25.3	2.77	2-1
2010/11	380	29.2	2.8	1-1
2011/12	380	24.5	2.81	1-1
2012/13	380	28.4	2.8	1-1
2013/14	380	20.3	2.77	1-0
2014/15	380	24.5	2.57	0-1
2015/16	380	28.2	2.7	1-1
2016/17	380	22.1	2.8	1-1
2017/18	380	26.1	2.68	1-1
2018/19	380	18.7	2.82	2-0
2019/20	380	24.2	2.72	1-1
2020/21	380	21.8	2.69	1-1
2021/22	331	23.6	2.77	1-1

This season

With 331 games played, draws average out at 23.6%, with an average of 2.77 goals per game and 1-1 again proving the most popular scoreline.

However, despite draws being down on the levels prior to the introduction of three points for a win (and goals being up), the Premier League would be gearing up for a much more exciting conclusion under the old system.

Redrawing the table under two points for a win would have Manchester City and Liverpool level on points going into the final five games of the campaign. In fact, it would be the Reds who topped the table thanks to their superior goal difference.

The race for the fourth and final Champions League spot would also be far more open, with West Ham, in seventh, trailing Arsenal by just four points - they are currently eight points adrift of the Gunners.

		P	W	D	L	F	A	Pts
1 (2)	Liverpool	33	24	7	2	85	22	55
2 (1)	Manchester City	33	25	5	3	80	21	55
3 (3)	Chelsea	32	19	8	5	67	27	46
4 (4)	Arsenal	33	19	3	11	52	40	41
5 (5)	Tottenham	33	18	4	11	56	38	40
6 (6)	Manchester United	34	15	9	10	53	51	39
7 (7)	West Ham	34	15	7	12	52	44	37
8 (8)	Wolves	33	15	4	14	33	29	34
9 (11)	Brighton	34	9	14	11	31	42	32
10 (9)	Newcastle United	34	11	10	13	40	55	32
11 (10)	Leicester City	32	11	9	12	47	51	31
12 (13)	Southampton	34	9	13	12	40	56	31
13 (14)	Crystal Palace	33	8	14	11	43	41	30
14 (12)	Brentford	34	11	7	16	41	49	29
15 (15)	Aston Villa	32	11	4	17	42	46	26
16 (16)	Leeds	33	8	10	15	38	68	26
17 (17)	Burnley	33	6	13	14	29	45	25
18 (18)	Everton	32	8	5	19	34	55	21
19 (19)	Watford	33	6	4	23	31	67	16
20 (20)	Norwich	33	5	6	22	22	69	16

However, while it may be good news for Liverpool and to a certain extent West Ham, the revised table would not make such good reading for fans of Everton. The Goodison Park club would need two wins just to get back on level terms with Burnley. And then they would probably still be below the Clarets due to an inferior goal difference.