League One outright betting tips: Can anyone stop Birmingham City and who will make the play-offs?

Birmingham City are the standout team in this year’s League One competition. They’re a massive club with an enormous fanbase and budget; the expectation is they’ll bounce straight back up.

However, there are no fewer than 10 sides with recent second-tier experience in this year’s league, plus some competitive additions from League Two, such as Stockport County and Wrexham.

Even Mansfield, who rank 17th most likely to achieve promotion according to the bookmaker’s odds, could benefit from the momentum of promotion.

 

Suggested bets

Birmingham City to win the title

Bolton Wanderers to be promoted

Top goalscorer: Alfie May

Top North West club: Bolton (Bet365)

Top-six finish: Lincoln City

Relegated: Stevenage

 

Who will win League One?

Birmingham are the clear favourites to win the league at an average price of 2/1. Bolton Wanderers are considered next best at 10/1, with Rotherham United, Wrexham, Huddersfield Town and Charlton Athletic hot on their heels.

While we don’t want to write any side off, we have to believe that the Blues and the Trotters will be battling it out for the title this season.

If the management group can allow Chris Davies time to build, then City will go well. The promising young coach spent last season assisting Ange Postecoglou at Spurs.

He’ll have a wealth of quality for this level at his disposal, with the likes of Kristian Bielik, Tyler Robert and Juninho Bacuna, all of whom have played a part in successful Championship seasons.

Siriki Dembele and Koji Miyoshi will terrorise defences at this level and create scores of chances for one of the league’s most prolific goalscorers Alfie May.

Wanderers have added the experience of Scott Arfield to the group this summer, but it’s fair to say they don’t need to make many additions.

Keeping their talented core together and using play-off defeat as motivation to make a quick start to the season should put them on the right path.

Dion Charles was the top goalscorer with 16 last term, whilst Victor Adeboyejo knocked in 10 in 38. However, the most promising of their striking trio is Aaron Collins, who should threaten the 20-goal mark.

They may need to tighten things up on the road to achieve automatic promotion, but it’s highly unlikely they’ll be looking up at two teams reaching 90+ points again.

 

Who will reach the League One play-offs?

Several of these sides will likely make a challenge for automatic promotion but our focus here is to identify who will finish in the top six.

Birmingham, Rotherham and Bolton are odds-on favourites. The Millers tend to yo-yo between this level and the next, but there’s no guarantee they’ll make the cut, so the odds don’t appeal.

Wrexham, Huddersfield, Charlton and Peterborough United are priced between 1/1 and 2/1.

The Welsh side aimed to assemble a squad capable of winning League One to escape League Two. Players like Jack Marriott (225), George Evans (198) and Eoghan O’Connell (120) have made a significant level of appearance at this level or higher.

Convincing Sorba Thomas to play in League One was always going to be tricky for the Terriers, but at least they’ve added Herbie Kane and Antony Evans to their midfield.

They were very combative in the Championship and until we see how their approach to League One fares, we’re not keen to stick any money on them.

Posh have lost a couple of key players in defence, but the development of young talent like Ricky-Jade Jones and Malik Mothersille could make them competitive again this season.

We picked Charlton and Barnsley to make their moves last season and although the Tykes got to the play-offs, Athletic certainly did not. We’ll leave them to it this year.

Instead, we’ll consider some outsiders. Stockport County have momentum, Wycombe Wanderers find ways to compete on a budget, last season’s tip of Lincoln to reach the play-offs so nearly cashed, and Matt Taylor has ripped up the squad and started again at Bristol Rovers.

We’re happy to take another shot at the Imps. They finished seventh last season and they’re more established than the sides coming up. They have a clear identity under Michael Skubala and they know how to win at this level.

 

Who will be relegated from League One?

We think the odds are mostly correct for this market so we won’t be looking beyond Shrewsbury Town, Cambridge United, Northampton Town, Exeter City or Stevenage.

Crawley Town were favourites for relegation from League Two last season because their squad was assessed to be lacking. Instead, they’re now a League One side.

We think it’s disrespectful to price them as odds-on favourites to go down. Their style is thoroughly enjoyable to watch and even without Danilo Orsi, Scott Lindsey’s approach will win games.

Mansfield Town should adapt to the level well enough to survive, whilst Leyton Orient have shown they can keep clean sheets and win their home matches.

Burton Albion’s home form at the tail of the end season would have made them the prime candidate, but they’ve made the sensible decision to bin that entire team and start afresh.

Stevenage nearly caused an almighty upset by reaching the play-offs last term, despite playing less than attractive football under Steve Evans.

They produced more fouls and tackles than most whilst registering the third-lowest shorts per game tally. They won’t replicate their points tally and we think they’ll struggle against so many good passing teams.

 

READ MORE: Championship outright betting tips: Who will finish in the top six and who will be relegated?