How many points will Arsenal need to bag the fourth and final Champions League spot?

Paul Okey
17 February 2022

Do past Premier League tables give us any indication as to which team is going to sneak fourth spot?

Arsenal may have won just one of their last three Premier League games - and one in six in all competitions - yet they currently head the betting to grab the fourth and final Champions League slot.

Their inconsistent form and that of main rivals Manchester United (two draws in three), West Ham (one win in four) and Tottenham (Spursy) - means the market has seen three different favourites in the past three weeks alone.

So, if current form cannot be used as a reliable guide as to who will finish fourth, maybe we might be better off instead looking at how many points are needed for fourth - and what teams will have to do achieve it

Crunching the numbers

In the 26 seasons since the Premier League has reverted to 20 teams, the average number of points needed to secure fourth is 69 (68.76).

At the current rate of points per game, none of the top-four contenders are on course to reach that figure.

Arsenal (P 22 Pts 39 Ppg 1.77) come closest, with their current projected figure being around 67. Manchester United (P 25 Pts 43 Ppg 1.72) are two points worse off, with Tottenham (P 22 Pts 36 Ppg 1.64) and West Ham (P 24 Pts 41 Ppg 1.64) both on course for around 62 points.

📝 | Arsenal's next five #PL fixtures:

Brentford [H]

Wolves [H]

Watford [A]

Leicester City [H]

Aston Villa [A]

How many points, #AFC fans? 💭 pic.twitter.com/Rlcd3Eae9J
— Planet Sport (@PlanetSportcom) February 15, 2022

Even were Spurs to maintain the form they have produced under Antonio Conte (six wins and three draws from 12) they would still only amass 65 points.

The four contenders can take a little bit of solace from the fact that Chelsea have secured fourth in the past two seasons with 66 and 67 points.

Their 66 points came in 2019/20 when they finished a massive 33 points behind champions Manchester City. The only time the gap between first and fourth has been higher was in 2004/05 when Everton finished a full 34 points behind champions Chelsea with just 61 points. It followed on from a campaign in which Liverpool secured fourth with just 60 points - the lowest number of points since the league reduced to 20 teams in 1995/96.

Points needed actually increasing

Automatic qualification to the Champions League for fourth was introduced to the Premier League in 2012/13 but the number of points needed to secure that spot was on the rise well before then.

In the first ten seasons from 1995/96 the average number of points needed to grab fourth spot was 65.5. For the following 16 seasons that number has risen to 70.8.

That number has been bolstered by Arsenal's 79 in 2014/15 and Liverpool's 76 in both 2007/08 and 2016/17. Interestingly, all three seasons' points totals would have been enough to win the Premier League in 1996/97 when Manchester United under Sir Alex took the crown with just 75 points.

That season also saw three teams tied for fourth on 68 points, with Liverpool edging out Newcastle and Arsenal on goal difference.

With the title all but wrapped up and relegation going the same way, we can but hope for a similarly close-fought race for fourth spot this time around.

And who knows, we could go one better and get a four-way tie for fourth.

It would need a major upturn in form from Tottenham, in particular, for it to occur, with Spurs needing to pick up two points a game over their final 16 games. Man Utd and the Irons would also have to pick up the pace, too.

Nevertheless, here's how it could happen:

Arsenal (16 to play): W8 D5 L3 Final points 68

Tottenham (16 to play): W10 D2 L4 Final points 68

West Ham (13 to play): W8 D3 L2 Final points 68

Man Utd (13 to play): W7 D4 L2 Final points 68

Or Wolves could just go on and win 12 of their last 15 to take fourth without anyone noticing.