Free EFL acca tips: Middlesbrough and Leyton Orient to shine, plus more

Football expert Rhys Tovey, who runs his AGF service on Tipstrr, has dissectedt Saturday’s action to pick out his best-value tips, which are shortlisted below in a fivefold acca at combined odds of more than 30/1.

 

Saturday's EFL acca

Middlesbrough to win vs Cardiff City @ 17/20

Under 2.5 Goals Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United @ 4/5

Leyton Orient to win vs Shrewsbury Town @ 13/10

Under 2.5 Goals Carlisle vs Tranmere Rovers @ 4/5

MK Dons to win vs Salford City @ 6/5

Get an accumulator boost when you place an accumulator with Planet Sport. Back all five selections as an accumulator and get odds of over 30/1.

 

Cardiff City vs Middlesbrough

Both of these sides were involved in high scoring cup defeats during the week, with both conceding five goals in front of their own fans.

A second-string Middlesbrough side were thrashed by Stoke City and manager Michael Carrick will be looking for an immediate reaction when they travel to South Wales.

Middlesbrough have had a mixed start to the season, picking up four points from their three games. The stats show that they were the dominant side in all three matches, outscoring each of their opponents on expected goals quite convincingly.

Cardiff City picked up their first point of the season, against their biggest rivals Swansea City, last time out in the league but still sit bottom of the table. The Bluebirds have been second best in each matchup, conceding more expected goals than their opponents in all three league games.

These stats give the impression that Middlesbrough will likely dominate the chances in this one. Their away record from last season also helps their case. They are one of six sides who finished with a positive goal difference away from home in the Championship last season, whilst also picking up the sixth most points away from home.

Cardiff’s home record was not the worst but was not particularly strong either. They had the fourteenth best record in the league, losing as many as they won and finishing with a negative goal difference.

Middlesbrough’s recent record against Cardiff is also strong having won five of the last six meetings between these two sides, including each of the last three played in Cardiff.

Selection: Middlesbrough to win @ 17/2

 

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United

Bristol Rovers host Cambridge United on Saturday with both sides looking to end their respective winless runs.

After a 1-0 win on the opening day, Rovers have not won any of their last four matches, scoring in just one of those matches.

Stretching back into last season, Bristol Rovers have seen less than three goals scored in seven of their last eight matches and eleven of their last thirteen, as well as in each of their last six home matches.

Cambridge United are still waiting for their first victory this season, having lost three of their four matches.

Despite a crazy 4-4 draw last time out, Cambridge’s recent games have been low scoring, particularly in their away fixtures. Under 2.5 goals has landed in each of their last five away games, as well as in eight of their last ten on the road.

Both games between these sides last year were also short on goals, with three goals scored across the two ties.

Selection: Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/5

 

Shrewsbury Town vs Leyton Orient

Shrewsbury Town’s poor end to last season, where they failed to win any of their last seven games of the season, has carried over into this season, with The Shrews not winning any of their six fixtures this campaign.

A penalty shootout win over Notts County in the Carabao Cup is the only game they have not lost this season, with Shrewsbury’s current losing streak standing at four matches. They have also lost their last three games played at home.

A lot of their problems have come due to their poor defensive record. Shrewsbury have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last eleven and have only managed to keep one across their last twenty-three home matches. In their three league games this season, they have conceded at least 2.00 expected goals each time.

The Shrewsbury defence can not take all the blame though. In the league this season, The Shrews have not created more than 0.62 expected goals in any of their matches.

None of these stats makes for nice reading for Shrewsbury Town supporters, but their opponents on Saturday, Leyton Orient, are also not enjoying a good start to the new campaign as the only other team in the league yet to pick up any points.

Although they have lost all three of their league games, there is a lot more to be optimistic about if you are an Orient fan. They have won both of their Carabao Cup fixtures, including winning at Championship side Millwall during the week.

Their three league defeats have come against Bolton Wanderers, Charlton Athletic and Birmingham City, three sides all expected to be challenging in and around the playoffs come the end of the season.

Despite the strength of their opponents, Orient have not conceded more than 1.16 expected goals in any of their fixtures so far.

Leyton Orient also have the advantage in recent matches between the two sides having won each of the last six matches between themselves and Shrewsbury Town.

Selection: Leyton Orient to win @ 13/10

 

Carlisle United vs Tranmere Rovers

Carlisle United 1-0 over Barrow in their last home fixture saw them pick up their first clean sheet in sixteen home games and just their third since the start of last season.

Across their three league games this season, they have struggled to create many chances, accumulating more than 0.72 expected goals in just one of those fixtures. The 1-0 win over Barrow was particularly starved of action, with just 0.97 expected goals in total created between the two sides.

Their opponents this weekend, Tranmere Rovers, have a very mixed record defensively. They have already kept four clean sheets this season across six matches but have only kept three on their travels since the start of last season, conceding in twenty-five of their twenty-eight away games.

Similarly to Carlisle, Tranmere have also struggled to create many chances this season. In fact, they have not created more than 0.63 expected goals in any of their three league matches. Their only away game saw just 0.81 expected goals accumulated between both sides.

Even though both of these sides have poor numbers defensively (Tranmere Rovers away from home), neither side are creating many chances, and the odds for a low scoring game look appealing.

Selection: Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/5

 

Salford City vs MK Dons

This match takes place on Monday evening with both sides having a rocky start to the season.

The home side, Salford City, have not won any of their five matches this season and have only scored one goal. They have lost their last three home matches and not won any of the last six at The Peninsula Stadium. They have also not kept a clean sheet in their last sixteen matches in front of their own fans.

Salford have also struggled to create chances, creating no more than 0.58 expected goals in any of their league games so far.

Opponents MK Dons have not had the best start to the season, particularly when you consider they were a lot of people’s pick to win the title.

They lost their opening three games of the season, conceding eight goals and scoring just the once. A 3-0 victory over Carlisle followed those defeats last time out and they will be hoping that victory kick starts their campaign.

Last season was the first time these two sides had ever faced each other, with MK Dons winning both matches by a two-goal margin.

Selection: MK Dons @ 6/5

 

Back all five selections as singles and/or bundle them together into fivefold acca at combined odds of more than 25/1 on Planet Sport Bet (prices subject to change).

Rhys Tovey provides football tips as AGF on Tipstrr