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Bookies expect Haaland to rival Salah in scoring charts - but they may be over-estimating his impact

Erling Haaland montage

Erling Haaland’s Bundesliga scoring record is impressive but Manchester City’s new signing may be best backed to improve on his assists output.

Erling Haaland's move from Borussia Dortmund to Manchester City has prompted a number of bookmakers to create special Haaland-related markets.
Planet Sport has gone through a selection of them to see if there is any value to be had.

Erling Haaland to be Premier League top scorer 2022/23 - around 5/1

City haven't had a Golden Boot winner since Sergio Aguero took the award in 2014/15 on the back of his 26 goals.

They are the leading goalscorers this season with 94 in the top flight - five more than Liverpool. However, despite Kevin De Bruyne's four-goal heroics against Wolves lifting him to 15, he along with Raheem Sterling (13) and Riyad Mahrez (11) are still some way behind Mohamed Salah who leads the Premier League scoring charts with 22.

Haaland has 21 goals in 23 Bundesliga appearances for Dortmund and three in three in the Champions League.

However, Timo Werner joined Chelsea off the back of 28 goals in 34 Bundesliga appearances for Red Bull Leipzig and has failed to transfer that form into the Premier League.

Kai Havertz - 17 goals in 34 Bundesliga appearances in 2018/19 - is another whose goal tally has suffered since moving to England, while Jadon Sancho has struggled to adjust in his first season since swapping Borussia Dortmund for Manchester United.

Erling Haaland to have more shots than Harry Kane in 2022/23 - around 10/11

Only once in the last eight seasons has Harry Kane failed to hit three figures in a season for shots taken. That came in 2019/20 when despite only recording 81 shots in 29 appearances he still helped himself to 18 goals.

This season has seen Kane get 111 shots away in 34 appearances, some way down on his most prolific campaign for shots. That was in 2017/18 when 37 appearances produced 184 shots and 30 goals.
The season previously, the England captain had 74 fewer shots for one less goal, with his shooting accuracy at 53% (some way above this season's which stands at 40%).
In 23 Bundesliga games for Dortmund this season, Haaland has produced 77 shots at an average of 3.35 a game. It broadly tallies with his average from the previous campaign which saw the Leeds-born striker take 93 shots in 28 appearances (3.32 per game).

Haaland to score 3+headed goals and 3+ from outside the box - around 7/1

Of Haaland's 28 goals in all competitions in 2021/22, five have been with his head.
Only one of his Bundesliga goals this season has come from outside the box, though the 21-year-old has only attempted three shots from outside the area.
His reluctance to shoot from range is also illustrated by his return of just two goals from outside the box featuring among his 61 goals in Germany's top flight.

Haaland to score five+ goals assisted by Kevin De Bruyne - around Evens

This one is more about De Bruyne than it is Haaland. For while De Bruyne has 15 goals for City this season, he only has seven assists, with two coming from corners and two arriving from crosses. Gabriel Jesus is the only player he has assisted more than once, with both coming in the 5-1 thrashing of Watford.

His output is well below the 2019/20 campaign which saw him register 20 assists. However, in a season that saw Raheem Sterling score 20 Premier League goals and Sergio Aguero 16, De Bruyne only assisted Aguero six times and Sterling four.

Four of Haaland's 21 Bundesliga goals this campaign have been assisted by attacking midfielder Marco Reus, with Jude Bellingham and Julian Brandt providing three assists apiece.

Haaland to record 8+ assists in 2022/23 - around Evens

Haaland has eight assists this season from 23 Bundesliga appearances in 2021/22, matching his figure from the previous campaign. Of those, seven have been passes.

A less impressive return of three assists from 19 appearances when stepping up to the Champions League is a worry.

However, Haaland is likely to become a more rounded team player at the Etihad under the guidance of Pep Guardiola - and he still only 21, remember - so this may be where there is some value to be had.

Gabriel Jesus currently leads the way for City with eight this season and it is his position which most looks under threat with the arrival of Haaland.
If Evens is too skinny, 10+ assists is available at around 11/4.

READ MORE: Erling Haaland set to join Man City but how have other forwards fared under Pep Guardiola?

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