Could Leeds really be worse than the Derby side of 2007/08?
- Matt Whiley
- 17 March 2022
Forget the spawny injury-time win over Norwich, the Mighty Whites are in trouble. But could they really be on track to snatch the Rams unwanted record?
To put it politely, Leeds United are in something of a pickle.
Much-loved manager Marcelo Bielsa has been sacked and replaced by a man with no previous Premier League experience, and the Whites hover precariously above the bottom three, just four points above the trapdoor.
What's more, their defence could be about to set an unwanted new statistic. They are well and truly on track to plumb to unprecedented depths in the Premier League, with Derby County's record-high 89 goals against in 2007/08 under threat.
It's a far cry from being promoted under Bielsa in 2020 with 93 points, and then finishing in the top half in their first season back in the top flight since 2003/04.
So, where has it all gone wrong for them? Are they really as bad as that Rams side from 14 years ago? And how on earth does new man Jesse Marsch fix their defensive ailments?
The statistics
First, the numbers.
This season, Leeds have shipped 65 goals in 29 games, marking them out as the leakiest side in the league, and one of only three sides to have conceded more than 50 times.
Close behind are Norwich, who have given away 63, and then a little further back are Watford, on 55.
After that, you have to drop to 47 goals against to find the fourth worst, which is Everton.
If the assumption is made that Norwich, currently five points from safety, are to be returning to the Championship come May, then the fact that Leeds' other relegation rivals have better defences than them by factors of 18 to 38% is deeply troubling.
In addition, the top three - Manchester City, Liverpool, and Chelsea - have between them conceded 57 goals, eight fewer than Leeds have on their own. Just to really ram home the point, as if that needed doing.
Heaviest defeats
On the topic of the top three, Leeds' biggest defeats of the season were at the hands of two of them. They first suffered a 7-0 mauling at the hands of Manchester City back in December before then going down 6-0 to Liverpool last month.
Bielsa was certainly not one for shutting up shop, preferring instead to play a high-octane brand of football that brought goals at both ends in copious amounts. The problem with that, of course, was that when they came up against a side that was able to defend - read Liverpool and Manchester City - the goals would only go in at one end.
They lost 5-1 to Manchester United on the opening day of the season, which rather set the tone for what was to come, going on to concede at least three on four further occasions before the turn of the year.
City and Liverpool naturally dished out the Whites' biggest drubbings while they were on their travels, and while they understandably haven't been quite as bad as that at Elland Road, their heaviest home loss still saw them downed 4-0 by Tottenham last month.
Are they worse than Derby?
That very much depends on how you want to look at things.
If you take the numbers on their own, then no, the Rams are still the very worst the Premier League has ever seen - but it is close, and that could yet change. Leeds are shipping at present 2.24 goals per game, which would see them end the campaign with an unenviable total of 85 goals against.
That is four fewer than the total put past the 2007/08 Rams, who went down with a goal difference of -69 after also scoring just 20 times. Objectively, Derby are still worse, and on that evidence, it will take a truly terrible shambles to outdo them.
However, there remains another way to approach this, and that is recent form. Derby were, to give them credit, at least consistently bad over the course of the season, whereas it's hard to believe Leeds are in this position after an October that saw them collect seven points from four games, and concede just three times. The collapse of the Elland Road outfit has to go down as among the worst in Premier League history.
In their ten games from mid-January to victory over Norwich on Sunday, the Whites won just twice, and shipped a total of 29 goals. Derby may have had six stuffed past them on three separate occasions, but for the 32 games they were actually alive and kicking in their relegation fight, even the worst ten-game run they endured saw them only concede 24.
Leeds' heaviest defeat was also worse, with Derby never quite plumbing the depths of having to pick the ball out of the back of the net seven times inside 90 minutes.
What can be done?
Whether worse than Derby or not, it's clear to even the most casual of football observers that Leeds are on a march to relegation unless something changes -win over Norwich or not.
Their rivals enjoy the luxury of having games in hand, and one win in their last nine is, very simply, not good enough.
There was an outpouring of support for Bielsa when the board made the crucial call to make a change in a high-stakes bet to retain their top-flight status. It is now down to American boss Jesse Marsch to preserve that at Elland Road.
The biggest and most important thing he can do is to build around Luke Ayling and Stuart Dallas. Arresting a decline as bad as this is as much about the mental side as it is the actual footballing, tactical side, so those two are crucial in terms of their willingness to fight. Both have a team-high 2.6 tackles per 90, while Liam Cooper is another who needs to be believed in, with 1.9 interceptions per game.
Ayling and Cooper lead the side in terms of blocks, too, further illustrating their willingness to throw themselves on the line for the team. If Marsch has that duo, plus Dallas, on the field at any one time, the numbers are there to show that that particular backline should have a little more resistance to it.
Although Marsch lost his first game in charge, a 1-0 reversal away to Leicester, there were signs of improvement, and certainly fewer examples of the catastrophic capitulations that had overcome the team in the final stages of Bielsa's reign.
He has to make sure he builds on that, and after securing their first win since mid-January, they might just be able to gather enough points to stave off the drop - and enough clean sheets to stave off eclipsing Derby's record.
