The Analyst: Premier League sackings, the earliest latest, latest earliest and months with the most

Paul Okey
3 January 2022

Rafa Benitez and Claudio Ranieri look to be dead men walking but after them there don't seem to be many bosses in danger. So when is the best time to place a No Manager to Leave Post bet?

Rafael Benitez has been a long-time market leader in the Next Premier League Manager to Leave Their Post betting, with Claudio Ranieri having shortened in recent weeks to dispute him for favouritism.

However, while the Everton and Watford managers are living on borrowed time, next-best Marcelo Bielsa is a double-figure price to leave next.

The remainder of the top-flight bosses seem fairly well ensconced in their roles, which has us asking the question, when does the No Manager to Leave bet come into play.

Still available in some places at 20/1 that price will undoubtedly shorten as the season progresses and Benitez and Ranieri meet their fates.

So, Planet Sport looks at the earliest a No Manager to Leave bet has paid off. We also pick out the most popular month for sacking managers and highlight the bosses who departed with the season all but done.

Sackings in short supply early on?

Two seasons of Premier League soccer have seen just the one managerial casualty. The inaugural 1992/93 campaign saw Ian Porterfield depart Chelsea in the February, while in the 1965/96 season, Roy McFarland and Bolton Wanderers parted ways in the January.

But don't let that fool you into thinking that a rash of managerial sackings in a recent development. The 1994/95 campaign saw nine managers leave their posts. That figure has only been surpassed twice, in 2013/14 and 2017/18, with ten managerial changes taking place in both campaigns.

Get through November and December and you've got a chance

The most popular month for managerial sackings is November, with 32 bosses having left their roles in the Premier League. December follows closely behind on 30, with 20 managers having departed in October, January and March.

The least popular month for a departure is August, with just five managers having gone in the opening month of the season.

However, Nigel Pearson deserves a special mention as the only manager to lose their job during the season in July. Pearson was dismissed as Watford manager in July 2020 with just two games of the COVID-affected campaign remaining.

Christmas cheer in short supply for Warnock

There were only six departures in the 2014/15 campaign and we had to wait until December 27 for the first of them, with Neil Warnock given his marching orders at Crystal Palace.

The 20/21 season didn't see the first sacking until December, too, with Slaven Bilic on his way out at West Brom. However, the season started a month later, on September 2.

When backing No Manager to Leave early has paid off

In addition to McFarland (January 2), January provided the final managerial sacking of the 2007/08 campaign, with Sam Allardyce replaced by Kevin Keegan at Newcastle on January 9.

Three times, February has seen the final manager leave their post. Porterfield went on February 15, with Tony Adams (Portsmouth) and Luiz Felipe Scolari (Chelsea) both departing on February 9, 2009 and Fulham sacking Ranieri on February 28, 2019.

If you placed a bet on No Manager to Leave on March 1, it would have paid out six times in the 29 completed Premier League seasons.

Managers sacked with the end in sight

However, while it is not uncommon to have no departures after February, seven managers have lost their jobs as late as May.

And anyone placing a No Manager to Leave bet cannot rest easily until the 38th and final game.

With one match of the 2010/11 season remaining, Avram Grant was sacked at West Ham after the Irons' relegation to the Championship had been confirmed.

Roberto Mancini was given the bullet by Manchester City with one league game of the 2012/13 left, while Roberto Martinez was shown the door by Everton in May 2015/16 with just Norwich City to play. It was a move that paid instant dividends as under caretaker-managers Joe Royle and David Unsworth the Toffees, off the back of one win in 10, thrashed the Canaries 3-0.