The Masters - form, rankings and more

With April lurking, the golfing world starts to think about the first major of the 2025 season, especially now that the biggest non-major event (The Players) has been and gone.

For golf bettors, now is the time to start digging deep in an attempt to uncover the first major betting gem of the campaign.

Played at the same course year in year out, the Masters presents bettors with a fairly unique chance to get stuck into stacks of highly relevant previous data, which is not something that can be said for any of the other three majors, all of which change venues every year.

Is recent Masters form important?

As far as I’m concerned, Augusta is very much a horses-for-courses track in that certain players take to it and tend to perform well over and over.

Only one Masters winner since 2018 put the green jacket on having not previously posted multiple top-20 finishes at Augusta, which tells us that players who’ve already shown that they can handle the test at one of the United States’ most prestigious golfing venues tend to thrive.

In fact, very few recent winners of this tournament have failed to drop a hint by playing well in the five years prior to them getting the job done.

Let’s look at the five-year Masters form of the last 10 green-jacket winners:

●     2024: Scottie Scheffler - five-year Augusta form of 10th, 1st, 18th, 19th

●     2023: Jon Rahm - five-year Augusta record of 27th, 5th, 7th, 9th, 4th

●     2022: Scottie Scheffler - five-year Augusta record of 18th, 19th

●     2021: Hideki Matsuyama - five-year Augusta record of 13th, 32nd, 19th, 11th, 7th

●     2020: Dustin Johnson - five-year Augusta record of 2nd, 10th, 4th, 6th

●     2019: Tiger Woods - five-year Augusta record of 32nd, 17th

●     2018: Patrick Reed - five-year Augusta record of MC, 49th, 22nd, MC

●     2017: Sergio Garcia - five-year Augusta record of 34th, 17th, MC, 8th, 12th

●     2016: Danny Willett - five-year Augusta record of 37th

●     2015: Jordan Spieth - five-year Augusta record of 2nd

●     2014: Bubba Watson - five-year Augusta record of 50th, 1st, 38th, 42nd

As we can see, not many players have won the Masters in recent times without showing us that they can seriously compete at Augusta. In the last decade, the only serious anomalies are Patrick Reed and Danny Willett. Each of the other winners shown above had finished in the top ten at least once in the five years preceding their victory, apart from Tiger Woods, who had previously won the tournament not once, not twice, but five times.

Sure, someone could emerge from the pack at big odds and cause a shock, though recent history tells us that a seriously surprising winner is highly unlikely.

World rankings not to be overlooked when it comes to the Masters

Not only is previous Masters form important ahead of the four-day test in Georgia, but we’re also talking about a tournament in which the top players come to the fore. Let’s be honest, the cream usually rises at Augusta.

Let’s look at the world ranking of each of the last ten winners:

●     Scottie Scheffler rank when winning 2024 Masters = 1

●     Jon Rahm rank when winning 2023 Masters = 3

●     Scottie Scheffler rank when winning 2022 Masters = 1

●     Hideki Matsuyama rank when winning 2021 Masters = 25

●     Dustin Johnson rank when winning 2020 Masters = 1

●     Tiger Woods rank when winning 2019 Masters = 12

●     Patrick Reed rank when winning 2018 Masters = 24

●     Sergio Garcia rank when winning 2017 Masters = 11

●     Danny Willett rank when winning 2016 Masters = 12

●     Jordan Spieth when winning 2015 Masters = 4

●     Bubba Watson when winning 2014 Masters = 12

The above tells us that low-ranking players don’t really win this tournament, with only one of the last five winners ranking outside of the top three at the time of securing the green jacket, and even then, Hideki Matsuyama was hardly a low-ranker, standing at 25th in the world when winning in 2021.

Only two of the last ten winners of the Masters ranked lower than 12th at the time of donning the famous green jacket. None of the last ten winners were ranked lower than 25th. Knowing this can help us to whittle down our prospective bets.

Even if you’re looking for an each-way bet at chunky odds ahead of April’s showpiece golf event, my advice would be to forget about low-ranking players.

Masters 2025 betting

Here’s how the early betting at Ladbrokes stands:

●     Scottie Scheffler - 9/2

●     Rory McIlroy - 13/2

●     Jon Rahm - 12/1

●     Ludvig Aberg - 12/1

●     Collin Morikawa - 14/1

●     Xander Schauffele - 16/1

●     Bryson DeChambeau - 20/1

●     Brooks Koepka - 25/1

●     Hideki Matsuyama - 25/1

●     Cameron Smith - 28/1

●     Jordan Spieth - 28/1

●     Justin Thomas - 28/1

●     Patrick Cantlay - 28/1

●     All other players - 33/1+

Two bets stand out from a value point of view

From those at the top of the market with Ladbrokes, for my money, Collin Morikawa is hard to look beyond at 14/1.

Sure, the likes of Scottie Scheffler, who has won two of the last three renewals, and Rory McIlroy, who recently won the Players and is thus hitting form at the right time, warrant lots of respect, but who wants to bet on either of those two at single-figure prices? Not me.

At 14/1, Morikawa may just be generously priced. The world number four has thrived in recent weeks, finishing t9 at The PLAYERS recently, which followed his second-place finish at the Arnold Palmer. He also finished second at the Sentry and at the time of writing has posted five consecutive top-20 finishes.

In addition, the two-time major winner is yet to miss the cut at Augusta, finishing inside the top ten in each of the last two seasons.

Moreover, at the time of writing, Morikawa ranks as the number one player on the PGA Tour for both strokes gained: tee-to-green, as well as strokes gained: approach. Only one player sits above him when it comes to strokes gained: total too. That’ll do for me.

At much bigger odds, I like Russell Henley too. Now ranked seventh in the world, Henley is no back number, and for my money, he’s a slightly more serious contender than early odds of 50/1 suggest.

The Georgian recently scooped the top prize at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, while he also finished t6 at the Cognizant Classic. He’s not without recent Masters form either, finishing in a tie for fourth last season, while his last four visits to Augusta have yielded finishes of t11 and t15 as well.

Early Masters 2025 bets (Ladbrokes)

Collin Morikawa @ 14/1

Russell Henley @ 50/1 (each way)