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Burnley vs Leeds United bet builder tips and predictions: Trafford to keep score down in Championship clash

Burnley goalkeeper James Trafford celebrates saving a penalty

Burnley and Leeds United, both relegated from the Premier League in recent seasons, are vying for a relatively speedy return.

Scott Parker's Burnley are making a strong title challenge, sitting just three points behind Leeds with 56 points from 28 games. Their impressive run includes a 16-match unbeaten streak and a formidable home record.

Daniel Farke's team leads the Championship with 59 points and an 11-match unbeaten streak.

This mouthwatering Championship clash is the focus of Monday night’s bet builder, which is priced at 9/2 with Paddy Power at the time of writing.

 

Burnley vs Leeds bet builder

Under 2.5 goals - 1/2

James Trafford to make 3+ saves - 10/11

Over 4.5 cards shown - 10/11

 

Burnley vs Leeds betting preview

This is not an easy fixture to dissect. It may or may not make for brilliant viewing, and most of the standout markets are not markets that punters typically take pleasure in cheering on.

Burnley’s James Trafford has kept a league-leading 18 clean sheets this season, while his opposite number, Ilan Meslier, has managed 16 despite some high-profile errors.

The Clarets’ mean defence has limited their opponents to nine goals in 28 matches this term. It’s been particularly slim pickings for those visiting Turf Moor, where Parker’s side have conceded just four goals.

If there’s an attack built to test their resolve, it’s Leeds’ frontline. Manor Solomon and Daniel James were both on target in the 2-0 win over Norwich, taking their combined goal involvements for the season to 21.

Interestingly, Leeds have given away fewer chances than even Burnley, allowing 19 xG compared to their hosts, who have allowed 23.9 xG.

That speaks to just how James Trafford has been this season, with his double penalty save against Sunderland alone accounting for 1.56 xG prevented. Conversely, Meslier has let in more than he should have.

He typically faces 8.4 shots per game at Turf Moor, though Leeds should be able to fire off a couple more, even if they may have to settle for strikes from distance at times.

Despite the host’s formidable record, they’ve failed to win the majority of home games. Preston, Stoke, Derby, Queens Park Rangers and Preston have all managed a 0-0 draw at Turf Moor.

An unfortunate slip from Manor Solomon helped Burnley claim a 1-0 win at Elland Road in September, otherwise that too may have finished 0-0. We can’t write off this match finishing square, so under 2.5 goals seems a smart bet.

The other markets we think can be exploited are fouls and cards. This is a game between two very combative teams, who will want to set the tone early, played in tricky conditions on a wet pitch.

Parker’s side are averaging 1.9 cards per game this season, a number which equals the number Leeds are seeing on the road. The occasion could nudge them past those averages.

 

READ MORE: Monday's free football accumulator tips

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