Newmarket trends analysis best bet: Plenty more to come from improving Sea Theme

14:25 Newmarket: Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Stakes (1 mile 4 furlongs)

Last weekend’s trends analysis of the Ayr Gold Cup provided a shortlist of four and our selection Montassib finished fifth and all bookmakers offered at least five places.

He was available at 33/1 at time of writing and 25/1 the night before racing, so a decent place return for anyone who followed it. 

The second best in the shortlist Significantly was available at 12/1 and won the race at 8/1, so not bad from the trends.

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Sea Theme wins the race, get a £5 Free Bet!

On to this week and the Cambridgeshire meeting from Newmarket and I am using the following trends to try and find the winner of the Group 3 Dubai Stakes for three-year-old-plus fillies and mares.

• 16/18 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
• 15/18 – Had won over 1 mile 2 furlongs or more
• 15/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
• 14/18 – Placed favourites
• 14/18 – Won between 1-3 times before
• 12/18 – Aged 3 years old
• 11/18 – Returned 4/1 or shorter 
•   8/18 – Winning favourites
•   7/18 – Won last time out
•   3/18 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
•   3/18 – Ridden by William Buick
•   2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
•   2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of the last 7)
•   2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
•   3/10 - won by the horse from stall 12
•   4/12 - Trained by John Gosden 

Having used the trends above I was left with a shortlist of three super fillies, all with scope for improvement: Sea Theme, Azazat and Sweet Memories.

Suggested bet: Sea Theme each-way in the 14:25 at Newmarket

Sea Theme has only had three runs, winning twice, including success at Listed level last time in a decent race at York. In each of her three races Sea Theme has run green and still managed to perform well. 

I think there is further improvement to come here under Tom Marquand, and she has already won on good-to-firm going, whereas the other two on the shortlist are unproven on such ground.

Azazat is the most experienced of the three fillies on the shortlist, having had six runs, but only winning once. Dermot Weld is super at getting horses to peak for big races and had Azazat on form to finish second in a Group 2 earlier in the season. 

It is a little concerning that he has opted to apply cheekpieces at this stage in Azazat’s career, but it may help the filly to settle.

Sweet Memories comes from the John and Thady Gosden stable, which is on form and has an excellent record in the race. Frankie Dettori takes the ride, and he has won twice in the last seven runnings.

Curiously, all three fillies have a breeding connection to Sea of the Stars with Sea Theme and Sweet Memories being sired by the multiple Group 1 winner and he was Azazat’s dam sire. 

I think Sweet Memories has the potential to win this, but I really liked the performance of Sea Theme at York and think there is more improvement to come from her than the others. 

There are several others likely to run well including John Gosden’s other runner, Running Lion, but my trends-related nod goes to Sea Theme each way at the 8/1 available at the time of writing, although that price is obviously subject to change as the race approaches.

READ MORE: Friday ITV racing tips: Best bets for day two of Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire meeting