Newmarket trends best each-way bet: All signs point to Yorkshire in intriguing Bunbury Cup

16.00 Newmarket: bet365 Bunbury Cup (7 furlongs)

This weekend we are tackling another historic handicap, and 20 runners are declared for this seven-furlong race at Flat racing headquarters. 

As usual,I am using some winning trends from the last 20 years to reduce the line-up to a more manageable number:

• 21/22 – Won over 7 furlongs previously 
• 20/22 – Raced 3 or more times that season 
• 16/22 – Carried 9st-4lb or less in weight 
• 13/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years old 
• 13/22 – Winners from stall 14 or higher 
• 12/22 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out 
• 11/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the market 
• 10/22 – Placed in their last race 
• 10/22 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting 
•   9/22 – Horses from a double-figure stall finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd 
•   4/22 – Favourites (inc. joint and co) 
•   3/13 – Trained by Richard Fahey (3 of the last 13) 
•   3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 15) 
•   9/13 – Drawn in double-figure stalls
• 15/16 - Carried 9st or more 
• 10/16 - Carried between 9st and 9st 3lbs

Having used the trends listed above I have ended up with a shortlist of four horses for further analysis:

Divine Libra ran a decent race to finish sixth in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, beating the reopposing Mustajaab in the process. 

This Charles Hills-trained four-year-old is very consistent, having placed among  the top three eight times in only 13 outings, and has run well before on the Newmarket July course. 

William Buick is probably the best jockey riding at Newmarket in recent years, so that is another obvious plus.

Mustajaab has a 100 percent record on all-weather tracks, but has only won one in 11 on turf and has missed the frame in every other attempt. 

Improvement will be needed for the four-year-old to get in the frame here, but he does have a favourable high draw. 

Mustajaab has never won above Class 4, so probably needs at least seven pounds to find to feature in this highly competitive handicap.

Spirit Genie has won his last two races and has gone up the handicap ratings by seven pounds, which makes this a tough assignment. 

He has won at Class 2 level over today’s trip and finished sixth in the Lincoln over a mile, so he should be capable of running into a place here. 

Spirit Genie is tremendously consistent and just under fifty percent of his race ending with a top-two finish with four wins, two of which came in his last two appearances in May.

Yorkshire finished fifth last time in a race over an extended mile and the drop back to seven furlongs should suit. 

Suggested best bet: Yorkshire each-way in the 16:00 at Newmarket

Ed Bethell’s four-year-old has only had nine runs, so has plenty of scope to improve and has already had six top-three finishes, half of which were wins. 

David Allan takes the ride, and he is a very underrated jockey who is certainly capable of bringing the best out of Yorkshire here.

I was torn here between Divine Libra and Yorkshire here and both could have been our final selection. As you are aware if you regularly read this column for  these big field handicaps, I sometimes will put up two selections. 

However, Divine Libra is noticeably and prohibitively short at 15/2, so on the trends and a value basis I am suggesting an each-way bet on Yorkshire, who is available at 22/1 at the time of writing. 

As always, we advise you to please shop around for extra places - there should be at least five places available with most major bookmakers (and even as many as seven in some quarters).