Newcastle trends best bet: Yashin ticks all the right boxes in Northumberland Plate bid

15:10 Newcastle: JenningsBet Northumberland Plate Handicap (2 miles 56 yards)

We are hoping to continue the success we enjoyed at Royal Ascot, where our trends-based tips yielded a winner and three places, all at double-figure prices, across five races. 

This weekend I am analysing the Northumberland Plate, affectionately known as the Pitman’s Derby, and as usual, I will use a number of winning trends trends to reduce the 20-runner field to a more manageable three or four for further analysis:

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• 21/22 - Had won over at least 1m4f before
• 21/22 – Finished fifth or better last time out 
• 18/22 – Came from stall 14 or lower 
• 18/22 – Finished in the top three in their previous race 
• 17/22 – Aged 6 or younger 
• 17/22 – Had won over at least 1m6f before
• 12/22 – Carried 8st-12lb or less 
• 12/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting 
• 10/22 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season 
•   8/22 – Won by a National Hunt yard 
•   7/22 – Won their previous race 
•   6/22 – Winning favourites 
•   4/22 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before 
•   3/15 – Ran at Haydock last time out 
•   2/14 – Trained by Donald McCain (2 of the last 14) 
•     2/9 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 9) 
•     2/5 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 5) 
•   1/22 – Won by a previous winner of the race

Having applied the trends above we are left with the following shortlist:

Yashin is a Group Three winner running in a handicap here, and as a result is giving weight to all bar Tashkhan, who carries six pounds more. 

Jessica Harrington has stated that Yashin is being aimed at the Melbourne Cup and he ran a creditable seventh in the Ebor last summer, before kicking off this season with third-placed finishes on both of his outings across the Irish Sea. 

The five-year-old certainly has the class to win this if he stays the additional couple of furlongs and I would expect him to be tucked behind the front three before moving to the front with a furlong or less to go.

Suggested best bet: Yashin each-way in the 15:10 at Newcastle

Solent Gateway does have to deliver a career-best performance to win this, but he stays the trip and meets most of the trends. Hugo Palmer’s six-year-old is exposed, so is unlikely to improve beyond what he has shown previously, but the stable is in decent form at present. 

He does look overpriced to me and may run into a place, but I do not see him winning. Interesting to note that three of his four wins have had women jockeys on board, so one to watch for in the future when a lady is booked, perhaps!

Trooper Bisdee is the early favourite and it appears significant that Hollie Doyle has opted for him rather than Solent Gateway, on whom she has won on before. 

Sir Mark Prescott has been one of the best trainers in Britain when it comes to placing his horses as they go up the handicap ratings. 

Trooper Bisdee comes here having won seven of his last nine starts, but he needs to improve a lot to compete here as he goes up two classes with a weight penalty to carry.

Artisan Dancer has won over both the course and distance but has recently been paying for his consistent performances over the last four months. 

Trainer Charlie Johnston usually books a top jockey when his horse has a chance, but the low weight to be carried will drive his choice here, although Andrew Breslin’s three-pound claim will help matters.

He remains above his last winning mark and that makes this difficult, especially as that win was in a Class 4 race, and with the stable not firing, a place may be the best Artisan Dancer can hope for.

This is a strong renewal of this historic race, with top-weight Tashkan having finished third in the Prix Royal Oak (Group 1) at Longchamp. 

Based on the trends, I am recommending an each-way bet on Yashin, who fulfils most of the trends and has Group-winning class to boot. 

Our selection is available at a widely-available 8/1 (best price 9/1) at the time of publication, so as always, remember to shop around for extra places and best prices from your bookmaker.

READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing tips: Best bets for Newcastle and Newmarket on June 29