Newcastle free racing tips: Course-distance winner can hit ground running after recent break

17:05 Newcastle: Arc Weekend on Sky Sports Racing Handicap (1½ miles)

Having been out-stayed over this trip at Kempton a month ago, the favourite, Machete Beach, looks vulnerable from a stamina perspective on this uphill track, and this is a stronger and far more competitive event.

A far better-value bet at the prices is Thundering, one of only two previous course-distance winners in a line-up made up of predominantly older horses.

Thundering arrives fresh from a short break, and he was last seen finishing third of seven behind the highly progressive Baltic, who was completing a five-timer in a Class 4 handicap over this very trip in late July.

Best Bet: Thundering in the 17:05 at Newcastle

With the front pair up there the whole way, Thundering ran against the pace bias, coming from the back of the field off a slow pace, so he did well in the circumstances, and he pulled almost three lengths clear of the rest.

However,  he is better judged on his never-nearer third of 12 in a 0-84 at Carlisle (another uphill track) a month earlier, when he made up a lot of ground up the finishing hill, and would surely have finished closer still had that race been over today’s 1½-mile trip rather than 11 furlongs.

Granted a decent pace today, the five-year-old looks poised to build on his latest c/d run and he holds a good chance against opposition with plenty of questions to answer.

Of the others, Saratoga Gold arrives on the back of a runner-up of seven in a 0-82 over this trip on the uphill track at Pontefract, where he was never nearer than at the line.

Saratoga Gold is only a pound higher, and he is already a previous 12-furlong winner on the all-weather, having landed a very decent 0-92 handicap at Kempton by no less than seven lengths last year.

There could be more to come from him in this sphere and he is in the sort of form that could see him run very well off 8lbs lower than for his easy Kempton win, although he is still unproven on tapeta.

Next Best Bet: Saratoga Gold in the 17:05 at Newcastle

• Preview and tips provided by Steve Jones, who runs CD Systems Daily Bargain on Tipstrr