Newcastle best bet: Drop in class gives Lily In The Jungle big chance over optimum trip

20:30 Newcastle: Build Your Acca With BetUK Handicap (6 furlongs)

Looking enticingly overpriced is the three-year-old Lily In The Jungle, who ran a promising race in a stronger 0-65 handicap over this course and distance on her latest outing two weeks ago.

On that occasion, the filly attempted to make every yard, and although she was headed approaching the furlong pole, she was still in third place until the dying strides, eventually finishing  fifth of 12 but missing the places by only a short-head and a head, and only 1.5 lengths off the winner.

The four who finished in front of her are rated higher than anything she faces this time, as were five of those who finished behind her, so she clearly wouldn’t need to improve much on that effort to hold a big chance in this weaker 0-60 contest.

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Lily In The Jungle finishes in the first 3 places, get a £5 Free Bet

Lily In The Jungle has already won four times, the last three of which were over a straight six furlongs, and she is still relatively lightly-raced on the all-weather after only six attempts, five of which were in higher-graded handicaps than this one).

Her three six-furlong wins all came from the front, but she was ridden by a claimer last time and he didn’t quite judge the pace accurately enough. This time, top track jockey Ben Curtis takes over and that is highly significant because he also has a very good record when riding for this yard (9/45 on the all-weather with 26/45 either winning or placing).

Indeed, Curtis has ridden this filly just once before, and that resulted in the partnership winning over the shorter five-furlong trip at Redcar when Lily In The Jungle was an inexperienced two-year-old early last season.

Suggested bet: Lily In The Jungle in the 20:30 at Newcastle

• Tip advised by Steve Jones who runs CD Systems Daily Bargain on Tipstrr

Of the others, Lezardrieux would be very dangerous if this return to synthetics sparks him back into life. He has been very poor on the turf since summer but his last all-weather run, which was over this vert trip in May, saw him finish second of 12 in a 0-65 which he contested off the top mark of 65, so he looks very interesting in a 0-60 off just 57.

His all-weather mark has been significantly reduced, without him even racing in this sphere, because of his recent poor form on turf, and that works in his favour today, with his stall 9 draw being another potential plus.

Next best bet: Lezardrieux in the 20:30 at Newcastle

 

READ MORE: Newcastle evening racing tips: Best bets for Friday October 20