Melbourne Cup racing tips: Trends suggest outsider Interpretation could feature at huge odds

Saturday’s trends selection earned us a minor profit, despite not actually winning, with Zhiguli finishing fourth at 20/1 in the Gold Cup Chase at Ascot. 

We are now venturing down under to Australia for the Melbourne Cup, popularly dubbed the race that stops a nation! 

Lexus Melbourne Cup - Group 1 Handicap (2 miles)

I have used trends from the last nineteen years to narrow down the field from the 24 declared runners to a more manageable level:

• 19/19 – Had won a Group class race before
• 17/19 – Won 8 or fewer races before
• 17/19 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
• 16/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
• 16/19 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
• 16/19 – Raced at Geelong (2), Flemington (3), Caulfield (4) or Moon Valley (6) last time out
• 13/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
• 13/19 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
• 13/19 – Aged 5 or older
• 13/19 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
• 13/19 – Had raced at Flemington Park before (8 won there)
• 12/19 – Won by a Australia-based horse
• 11/19 – Aged 6 or older
• 10/19 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
• 10/19 – Horses from stall 10 or 11 placed
•   9/19 – Had won over 1 mile 7 furlongs or more
•   9/19 – Won by a 6-year-old
•   9/19 – Placed favourites
•   5/19 – Had won just once before
•   4/19 – Won last time out
•   4/19 – Had raced in a previous Melbourne Cup
•   3/19 – Winning favourites
•   3/19 – English/Irish winners
•   2/19 – French-trained winners
• The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 18/1

There are several horses with what I believe to be decent chances of winning the race, and perhaps the standout is the Willie Mullins-trained Vauban, although he falls down on a few trends and is therefore eliminated from this analysis.

The three I have ended up with on my shortlist are: Interpretation, Vow And Declare and Kalapour.

Suggested bet: Interpretation each-way in the Melbourne Cup

Interpretation was pulled up in last year's race on soft ground, but he will be much more suited by good going this year. An ex-Aiden O’Brien horse, he has just had his first win in Australia and is perhaps coming to the boil in perfect time for this race. 

Vow And Declare has already run in two Melbourne Cups with a best-placed finish last year when finishing tenth. At age eight his chances are probably passed for winning the race, but he comes into the race in good form having finished second in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup.

Kalapour won the Group 3 Archer Stakes here on Saturday, so this is a very quick turnaround. My main concern for Kalapour is that he has never run further than a mile and five furlongs (finished third), so the extra three furlongs is unknown territory.

There are multiple horses which look to be potential winners of this years’ renewal: Vauban, Without A Fight and last year's winner Gold Trip will all carry serious claims, but for our purposes they all fall down on one or more of the trends. 

From a purely trends perspective I am suggesting an each-way bet on Interpretation and don’t forget to shop around for extra places. 

Interpretation is a 50/1 shot at the time of writing, and if that seems overly optimistic, it’s worth pointing out that there have been winners of the Melbourne Cup at 100/1, 25/1 and 20/1 in the last eight years. 

It’s also worth remembering that a horse has no idea about his or her odds, so it doesn’t pay to get too caught up on price.

Suggested bet: Interpretation each-way in the Melbourne Cup