Market Rasen best bet: Mostly Sunny forecast to shine brightly in Summer Handicap Hurdle

14.40 Market Rasen: Unibet Daily Industry Best Prices Summer Handicap Hurdle (2 miles 125 yards)

Last week’s selection, Yorkshire, disappointed in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket, having never really got into the race, so hopefully a change of race type will return us to winning ways.

As usual, we have used the trends below to narrow the Summer Handicap Hurdle's field from the 17 scheduled starters to a more manageable shortlist of four likely contenders:

• 19/22 – Had run within the last 5 weeks 
• 16/22 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before 
• 16/22 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old 
• 15/22 – Had won 2 or more times already over hurdles 
• 12/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out 
• 14/17 – Carried 11st-5lb or less 
• 11/18 – Carried 11st or less
• 10/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
•   4/12  – Ridden by a claiming jockey
•   7/22 – Had run at Market Rasen before 
•   3/22 – Winning favourites 
•   2/22 – Won by the Pipe stable 
•     2/4 - Ridden by Harry Cobden 

Chaos Control has had two wins over hurdles, the second of which was over this course and distance last time out five weeks ago, which is a major plus as Market Rasen is a fairly idiosyncratic track. 

Charlie Hammond is an improving jockey, and he was on board Chaos Control in that Class 4 race, but this is a big step up coupled with a three-pound rise in the weights.

Mostly Sunny has only had four hurdle runs, notching up two wins in between a couple of runner-up spots. These runs have been at a lower level and a 15-lb rise above his last winning mark will not help his case here.

However, I do believe that there is further improvement to come from Dan Skelton’s five-year-old, and the stable is adept at getting a hurdler ready for a big prize. 

Before being tried over hurdles Mostly Sunny has run well at Class 2 level on the Flat, which would suggest he has the scope to perform at a higher level over obstacles.

Suggested best bet: Mostly Sunny each-way in the 14:40 at Market Rasen

Manuelito has also only had four races over hurdles, winning twice, but again at a lower level. David Pipe’s stable is in form and has a decent record in this race with two recent wins. 

This four-year-old appears to go best when the ground is good and with sunny weather predicted for the next couple of days the good ground should only get quicker unless the clerk of the course decides to water. Manuelito has a four-pound allowance for age, which could help his case against his older rivals.

Nibras Gold is a very consistent performer, having finished in the top three 16 times in 23 starts, including six runner-up spots in his last seven outings, and therein lies a cause for concern. 

Of those 16 frame finishes, only four were wins with ten second places and that suggests that Nibras Gold has ability, but struggles to pass an alpha in the final stages, and if that pattern continues, then once again he is likely to have to settle for a place at best.

This race has always been competitive in the past, and this renewal appears no different, and really any of the four on the shortlist could win. 

Based on the trends, I am suggesting an each-way bet on Mostly Sunny, and as usual don’t forget to search for extra places and best prices.