Lingfield racing top tip: Not Sure can exploit Manothepeople’s absence

15:35 Surrey National Handicap Chase

The early favourite, Animal, is best on right-handed tracks and might prefer more testing ground than this is likely to be.

Also at the head of the market is Regal Blue, who is yet to win over fences and who has never won a handicap in either sphere.

He might be a bit out of his comfort zone after just two small-field chases to date.

The potential value elsewhere in the market did bring in Manothepeople, who looked made for a race like this, but he’s now a non-runner.

He likes to be up with the action and that is how he had been ridden before that, so it was very likely we’d have seen that approach today with very useful claimer Tom Broughton in the saddle.

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Broughton boasts a huge 32% strike rate when riding over fences for Fergal O’Brien (7/22) with eight of his other chasing rides for the trainer finishing second, third or fourth.

Of the others, Not Sure has recorded figures of 1313134 from his last seven handicaps in this sphere with two of his three wins coming on sharp and undulating tracks.

A winner over three miles, he was doing some good late work when 4th/19 in the Grade 3 Welsh Grand National just after Christmas (30.5f on an undulating, left-handed track).

The ground was very testing that day and today’s surface might be more suitable as he drops significantly in class.

But more significant is the fact that he was well out of the handicap at Chepstow, so he can run off 11 lbs lower today, making him a big player for a trainer who sends very few runners to this venue.

Suggested bet: Back Not Sure to win the 15:35 at Lingfield

• Tip advised by CD Systems - Daily Bargain on Tipstrr