Leicester free racing tips: Testing conditions set to suit over-priced filly

17:00 Leicester: Next Meeting at Leicester October 15th Handicap (7 furlongs)

A far better-value option that the vulnerable favourite is Takes Time, a three-year-old who has conditions to suit and who is still relatively unexposed in turf handicaps, having so far contested only five of them, of which just one is over this sort of trip.

That was last month in a higher-graded Class 5 event on heavy ground at Chester, where she was sent off the 11/4 second-favourite and she finished runner-up to the market leader in what was a 0-73 handicap.
She therefore looks a big price racing on turf for the first time since, down in a Class 6, off a lower mark, and back on a testing surface.

Tom Kiely-Marshall is a very good-value claimer just now, having ridden 6/15 for 40% over the last two weeks, so he is a very eye-catching booking with his 7lbs claim, meaning that Takes Time effectively runs off 5lbs lower than she did at Chester on her latest turf outing.

Best Bet : Takes Time each-way in the 17:00 at Leicester

Takes Time went for home fully half a mile out that day, in a bid to utilise her stamina (her previous form was over 8–10 furlongs) and only the progressive favourite was able to overhaul her.

The same seven-furlong trip on today’s more testing track looks bound to suit on that evidence, and if her Chester tactics are to be repeated here, it is worth noting that the second division of last year’s renewal of this race was won from the front with the narrowly-beaten runner-up in the second division also racing right up with the pace.

There is a lot more to come from Takes Time as a handicapper over this kind of trip on turf, especially on this sort of ground, and she is certainly handicapped to take advantage.

Of the others, Autumn Rose is another three-year-old filly likely to be favoured by these conditions, as her most recent run also came on testing ground, when he ran a solid race to finish 4th/8 in the same Class 5 handicap at Chester in which Takes Time was second..

Already a seven-furlong winner in a higher-graded Class 5 handicap (on good), she has also shown herself to be effective with cut in the ground, finishing runner-up to Politico (now rated 83) in a seven-furlong novices’ event at Chester last season.

Autumn Rose should go well in this lower grade under Tom Marquand, who takes over from an apprentice today, but from a value perspective it is worth noting that Autumn Rose was 1¼ lengths behind Takes Time at Chester yet is 9lbs worse off than that rival today (after riding claims).

Next Best Bet: Autumn Rose each-way in the 17:00 at Leicester

• Preview and tips provided Steve Jones, who runs CD Systems Daily Bargain on Tipstrr