Haydock trends analysis tips: Stats suggest a strong bid from Bold Endeavour

We had a mixed bag of results at Cheltenham’s November meeting last week.

Two of our selections were pulled up, one came third and the other fifth, although two of the three races were won by others that made our shortlist, so we were definitely moving in the right direction. 

This weekend sees decent racing from both Ascot and Haydock, albeit with some small fields, but we will aim our focus at the Stayers’ Hurdle from Haydock.

14:20 Haydock Betfair 'Serial Winners' Stayers' Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (3 miles)

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Goshowposh finishes in the first 4 places, get a £5 Free Bet!

We have used the trends below to reduce the field:

• 16/18– Aged between 5 and 7 years old 
• 15/18 – Had won between 1-3 times (hurdles UK)
• 15/18 – Carried 10st-9lb or more 
• 14/18 – Rated between 132 and 144 
• 12/18 – Went on to run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner, Paisley Park 2019) 
• 12/18 – Had raced within the last four weeks 
• 9/18 – Came from the top three in the betting 
• 9/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting 
• 9/18 – Placed favourites 
• 8/18 – Won last time out 
• 8/18 – French bred 
• 6/18 – Had raced at Haydock before 
• 4/18 – Trained by David Pipe 
• 3/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
•  2/18 – Trained by Nick Williams

By using the trends above we managed to reduce the field to a more manageable four for our shortlist: Bold Endeavour, Crambo, Santos Blue and Slate Lane.

Suggested bet: Bold Endeavour in the 14:40 at Haydock

Bold Endeavour from the Nicky Henderson stable is saddled with top weight but comes here with a decent chance nonetheless. 

He has run here over a similar trip, finishing second and the more the ground dries out the better his chances.

Bold Endeavour has placed in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle so has a certain level of class and should be there or thereabouts.

Crambo is the forecast favourite and won his seasonal debut in October at Aintree, beating Santos Blue despite giving him eleven pounds. 

The stable is in red-hot form and Crambo has already won at Graded level. The main question for him is will he stay, as his runs have all been over significantly shorter trips.

Santos Blue has still a bit to find with Crambo based on their run at Aintree last month. His claiming jockey has done well on him before, so no concerns about his ability. He has won in a big field and should be in the mix at the finish.

Slate Lane comes from the enigmatic Emmet Mullins’ stable and won very well at Newton Abbot with the comment “easily” but that was much less competitive. He does miss out on a couple of trends (days since last run and official rating), but his price reflects his chances.

Any one of the top four could win this race on their day and historically those to the front of the market do well so that would suggest Crambo or Slate Lane. 

However, I am prepared to suggest an each-way bet on Bold Endeavour as he is value odds and I suggest shopping around for additional places. The weather forecast shows good drying weather, and this should improve the chances of Bold Endeavour.

READ MORE: Harry Cobden assesses his Ascot rides in his Planet Sport Bet blog