Haydock best bet: Iron Lion trending towards roaring success in Old Newton Cup

15.15 Haydock bet365 Old Newton Cup Handicap (1 mile 4 furlongs)

This weekend I am targeting one of Britain’s oldest races: namely, the Old Newton Cup at Haydock, which began life as a four-mile handicap way back in 1807. It normally attracts a big field and will contain some useful prospects that will go on to run in much better class races.

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I have used the trends below to narrow down the field of 17 runners and hopefully find the winner:

• 20/22 – Had won a race over 1½ miles before 
• 16/22 – Aged 5 or younger 
• 16/22 – Won no more than 5 times before 
• 16/22 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower 
• 15/22 – Had won at least 3 times before 
• 14/22 – Officially rated between 89 and 97 
• 14/22 – Carried 9st-1lb or less 
• 13/22 – Favourites placed in the top 4 
• 12/22 – Aged 4 years old 
• 11/22 – Irish or USA bred 
• 11/22 – Carried 8st-12lb or less 
• 10/22 – Raced within the last 7 days 
•   8/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting 
•   8/22 – Placed horses (top three) from stall 4 
•   7/22 – Raced at Ascot last time out 
•   6/22 – Had won a race at Haydock before 
•   6/22 – Won last time out 
•   3/22 – Trained by Mark Johnston 
•   2/22 – Trained by Clive Cox 
•   2/22 – Trained by Marco Botti 
•   2/22 – Winning favourites (1 joint)

Using the trends above has left us with a shortlist of four:

Relentless Voyager has been highly tried and has run in four races of Listed level and above without winning, but has also performed well to finish third in a Group 2. 

The four-year-old will appreciate any rain that falls on Haydock between now and start time, with rain forecast overnight and on Saturday morning. 

Relentless Voyager has an excellent jockey and trainer combination in Oisin Murphy and Andrew Balding, but does look high enough in the weights, which might be a decisive factor.

Teumessias Fox is also from the Balding stable and has had three wins over this trip, although two of those were on all-weather surfaces. 

The five year-old disappointed on his last start, finishing last of 14 and remains six pounds above his last winning weight. Teumessias Fox has had more experience than the others on the shortlist, so would appear to have less chance of further improvement.

Iron Lion has won over this course and distance and his trainer David O’Meara is aiming him at the Ebor, which tells us how highly thought of his gelding is. 

This four-year-old won on his last visit to this venue four weeks ago and has gone up four pounds as a result, but that should be well within his scope. 

Iron Lion has a high knee action and although he copes on good going, he will be better with some juice in the ground. The overnight rain should aid his chances and both trainer and jockey Jason Watson are in decent form.

Suggested best bet: Iron Lion each-way in the 15:15 at Haydock

Sheer Rocks has a good winning strike rate with five wins out of 14 runs and has had to overcome an injury-interrupted career. 

His best form has been on good or quicker underfoot conditions, but his action suggests he should cope with juice in the ground. Sheer Rocks may have more improvement to come and he stays the trip, so should be thereabouts.

There are a few horses that missed the shortlist that have the ability to win this – namely, Epic Poet and La Yakel, but both fell down on a number of the trends. 

Based on the trends alone I suggest an each-way bet on the improving Iron Lion, and as usual, be sure to look around for the best prices and additional places, as most bookmakers are offering five places.

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