Goodwood trends best bet: Al Shabab Storm can bounce back at happy hunting ground

Our selection last Saturday ran well for most of the race but faded into third at the finish, so we’re getting straight back on the horse for our solitary selection for this weekend.

There is an excellent choice of meetings on Saturday, with premium racing from Haydock and Goodwood, plus a decent card at York, not to mention the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh.

I was initially going to look at the Temple Stakes from Haydock, but more rain could see that meeting called off, so I have settled upon this competitive handicap from the Sussex Downs.

 

13:30 Goodwood: William Hill Haraway’s Handicap (7 furlongs)

I am using the trends below to reduce the 17-strong field to three or four runners:

• 10/10 – Carried 9st-0lb or less in weight 
•   9/10 – Raced in the last 3 weeks 
•   9/10 – Came from stalls 2-6 (inc.) 
•   9/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out 
•   8/10 - Returned between 9/2 to 12/1 
•   6/10 - Carried between 8st and 8st-4lb 
•   6/10 – Winners from stall 2 or 3 
•   5/10 – Won just once before 
•   3/10 – Rated between 77-81 
•   4/10 – Winners from stall 3 
•   3/10 – Trained by the Johnston yard 
•   2/10 - Trained by Richard Hannon 
•   2/10- Winning favourites

 

After applying the trends above, we have a shortlist of three to analyse further:

Al Shabab Storm has already won at the Goodwood course, which is a huge plus even though it was over a shorter six-furlong trip. 

That win last October, the only success so  far in six attempts for Andrew Balding’s three-year-old, was in a lower-class affair, so Al Shabab does need to improve to win this, but he is well-drawn and meets most of the trends.

Suggested best bet: Al Shabab Storm in the 13:30 at Goodwood

 

 

Blue Prince has Tom Marquand, stable jockey for William Haggas, who trains Monfrid here, but that should not be taken as a negative, as it is purely because Marquand would not be able to make the weight allocated to his yard’s entry. 

Blue Prince is more exposed than most of his rivals here, having already won at this level, as well as tried at Group level, albeit finishing down the field. His best form has been on all-weather surfaces and despite the stable being in decent form this might be a step too far for him.

Monfrid has only had three runs, winning once in a Class 5 novice race, but his jockeys’ view was that Monfrid could well be better as a handicapper. 

The young colt has scope to improve compared to some of his rivals, but he will need to improve several pounds to win this. His jockey Adam Farragher has an excellent course record with a 33% strike rate from nine rides, so no worries on that front.

From that shortlist, I was torn between Al Shabab Storm and Monfrid, as the latter has more scope to improve, but I have decided to select Al Shabab Storm, mainly due to his previous course win.

I am suggesting an each-way bet, so don’t forget to shop around extra places and the best prices from your bookmakers.