Chester trends best bet (1330): Course experience key in helping Winged Messenger fly home

Last weekend saw our two selections at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting come second and third, both being beaten by only a length, which gave us a profit for each with our early advised prices. 

In the first of those races, our second choice Desert Cop won at a mouthwatering 22/1 to defy the wide draw that had caused me to rule him out!

This week we have a Festival meeting starting on Wednesday at the unique Chester course which is surrounded by the original Roman city walls. 

13.30 Chester: CAA Stellar Handicap (6 furlongs)

This opening race might not suit bettors who prefer Class 2 races or above, but for trends analysis we need a bigger field to make the data work for us, so we have plumped for this Class 3 sprint, using the trends below to reduce the field:

• 11/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting 
• 10/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks 
•   9/12 – Won between 1-2 times before 
•   9/12 – Placed favourites 
•   9/12 – Finished in the top 5 last time out 
•   8/12 – Carried 9st-2lb or less in weight 
•   8/12 – Winners from stalls 4 or higher 
•   8/12 – Had won over 6 furlongs before 
•   6/12 – Rated between 78-80 
•   6/12 – Had run at the track before 
•   3/12 – Winning favourites 
•   1/12 – Winners from stall 1

Having applied the trends, I am left with a shortlist of three runners for further analysis:

Al Shabab Storm must give weight away to most of the field and a lot of weight to the other two in the shortlist. 

The three-year-old gelding belongs to the Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy combination that rode Desert Cop to victory over our selection on Saturday, so the big question is whether I should ignore them again!

Coincidentally, Murphy was on board rival Auric last time, when finishing second in a Class 5 affair, following an earlier win for the same partnership. 

The Hugo Palmer-trained colt has only run three times, so has more scope to improve than several of these. Manor House stables, owned in part by the ex-Liverpool and England striker Michael Owen, usually target this meeting, as it is their local track. 

As a sidenote, Auric was the first name of the Bond villain Goldfinger, so we will have to see if that helps his cause here!

Winged Messenger is the only horse on our shortlist that can claim course experience, having finished second here in a Class 4 over today’s trip last September, since when he has won over the minimum trip at Hamilton. 

Hollie Doyle takes the ride here and she boasts a winning strike rate of 18% in the last two weeks.The gelding’s course experience is a plus, but whether he is quick enough remains to be seen.

This was a difficult race from which to select a potential winner, with Al Shabab Storm probably needing a longer trip on his breeding and the other two shortlisted coming from stables not in the hottest of form.

I have eventually settled on Winged Messenger as an each-way bet, mainly due to his course experience when running well to finish second here three outings ago.

Suggested best bet: Winged Messenger each-way in the 13:30 at Chester

 

READ MORE: Wednesday ITV racing tips - Best bets from Chester and Newton Abbot on May 8