Cheltenham racing tip: Trends analysis invites each-way punters to Unexpected Party

14.20 Cheltenham: Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (2 miles 4 furlongs - Old Course)

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is one of the most prestigious handicap chases of the season and has been won by very notable names in the past including Al Ferof, Our Vic, Imperial Commander, and Caid Du Berlais.

Stage Star heads the early betting and is sure to be the one to beat under Harry Cobden, who talks of his high hopes for the Paul Nicholls-trained seven-year-old on his Planet Sport Bet blog:

Watch: Harry Cobden weighs up Stage Star's prospects

 

We have used the trends below to reduce the field from fourteen runners to a more manageable level for further analysis:

• 20/21 – Had run at Cheltenham before 
• 20/21 – Had won over at least 2m 4f over fences 
• 20/21 – Won by a UK-based trainer 
• 17/21 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting 
• 15/21 – Carried 11st or less 
• 15/21 – Finished in the top four last time out 
• 14/21 – Had won at Cheltenham before 
• 13/21 – Aged 6 or 7 years old 
• 13/21 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before 
• 11/21 – Trained by Pipe (3), O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3) 
• 10/21 – Placed favourites 
• 10/21 – Won by a horse in the top three in the betting
•   9/21 – Aged 7 years old 
•   8/21 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance 
•   5/21 – Won their last race 
•   5/21 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out 
•   4/21 – Trained by the Pipe stable 
•   3/21 – Winning favourites 
•   3/21 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies 
•   3/21 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill 
•   3/21 – Ran at Carlisle last time out 
•   2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies 
•   1/21 – Irish-trained winners 
• The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975

By using the trends above I have reduced the field to three: Unexpected Party, Angels Breath and Harper’s Brook

Suggested Bet: Unexpected Party each-way in the 14:20 at Cheltenham

Unexpected Party has already won at Listed level when beating the much vaunted Knappers Hill back in October. Dan Skelton is adept at targeting these Cheltenham handicaps and I would expect another big run here with son Harry at the reins. 

He has plenty to find with Stage Star, but Unexpected Party has a decent pull at the weights this time around and could well find a way to put himself in the mix.

Angels Breath ran well here in October when finishing second in a big-field handicap; however, that was a Class 3 hurdle race, and this is hugely more competitive. 

Angels Breath is still improving over fences after being a very decent hurdler and if he can extend that form to larger obstacles, he could well be another to challenge for a frame finish here

Harper’s Brook runs from outside of the handicap, which is not ideal, but his trainer has proved himself to be capable of training winners in big races in his short career to date. 

Harper’s Brook has been highly tried but flopped in two Graded chases and may be better in handicap company, as as tough as in this race. 

Off his light weight he could go well, but I am not sure he will make the frame and the stable is not particularly in strong form.

This is a very tough race for horses  to win and for bettors to call and previous course winners The Real Whacker and Stage Star at the top of the weights are sure to be there or thereabouts. 

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Stage Star finishes in the first 4 places, get a £5 Free Bet

Nigel Twiston-Davies has Torn And Frayed running after a 658-day break and with the stable being in red-hot form, I could see a big performance there off an incredibly low mark. 

Based on our trends analysis, however, we’re going with an each way bet on Unexpected Party and as ever, be sure to look for extra places where available.

READ MORE: Harry Cobden’s Planet Sport Bet blog: Stage set for Star performance at Cheltenham