Cheltenham Festival Gold Cup tips: L’Homme Presse can chase Galopin Des Champs home at tasty odds

Cheltenham Gold Cup 15.30 Cheltenham: Boodles Gold Cup Chase (3 miles 2½ furlongs).  

The blue riband race of chasing is saved for the final afternoon of the Festival and is famously one of the hardest to win, due to its required mixture of stamina, speed and accurate jumping. 

Only the best three-mile-plus chasers win this biggest of all National Hunt prizes, and Graded form is a prerequisite. The winning horse must be 100% fit and be at its absolute best to compete and not make any jumping mistakes all the way round.

I have used the trends below to reduce the field and hopefully help to identify the winner:

Age 

• 12 of last 12 winners were aged between 7-9 

Price 

•   5/12 were favourites/joint favourites
•   7/12 were top 3 in the betting 

Last Run 

•   9/12 won on their previous run before the Cheltenham Gold Cup
• 11/12 had their last run within the last 80 days
• 12/12 had their last run 33 days or longer ago 
•   4/12 ran in the Irish Gold Cup (Leopardstown) last time out, (2/4 won) 
•   2/12 ran in the Denman Chase (Newbury) last time out, both won 
•   2/12 ran in the Savills Chase (Leopardstown) on their last run, 1 won, 1 placed 

Previous Course Form 

• 12/12 had at least 1 previous Cheltenham run
•   7/12 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham 

Previous Distance Form 

• 11/12 had at least 2 runs over 3 miles or more
• 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 3 miles or more
•   8/12 winners had at least 2 wins over 3 miles or more

Previous Hurdle Form 

• 12/12 had at least 4 runs over hurdles
• 11/12 had at least 2 wins over hurdles 

Previous Chase Form 

• 9/12 had at least 7 previous chase runs
• 12/12 had at least 2 previous chase wins
• 11/12 had at least 3 previous chase wins 

Rating 

• 11/12 winners were rated 164 or higher 
•   5/12 were rated 170 or higher 

Graded Wins 

• 12/12 had won at least 1 Grade 1 race 
•   7/12 had won at least 2 Grade 1 races
•   8/12 had won at least 1 Grade 2 race 
•   7/12 had won at least 1 Grade 3 race 

Season Form 

•   9/12 had at least 2 runs that season
• 11/12 had at least 1 win that season

 

Galopin Des Champs won this race easily last season and despite disappointing when beaten twice by Fastorslow at Punchestown he then romped home in the Savills Chase at Christmas. 

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Galopin Des Champs wins, get a £5 Free Bet!

The classy eight-year-old won that Grade 1 by over 20 lengths, which is rare and really looked to be at his best with very slick jumping throughout. 

Willie Mullins' charge then turned the tables on Fastorslow at the Dublin Racing Festival in February, landing the Irish Gold Cup by a comfortable four-and-a-half-length margin.

A repeat of that form should see them regain Cheltenham's version under Paul Townend, but if you look over the last fifty years of the Gold Cup, only Best Mate (twice) and Al Boum Photo have retained the title.

Fastorslow surprised many people by winning back-to-back Grade 1’s at Punchestown over two and a half and three miles. My concern would be his stamina not being proven, although he did run well to finish second to Corach Rambler in the Ultima here last season.

His price seems short considering he is unproven over the trip, and he was found out by Galopin Des Champs when they resumed battle in February's Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown, beaten convincingly by more than four lengths.

L'Homme Presse had an extended break from racing action since unseating his jockey at the last when beaten by Bravemansgame in the 2022 King George VI Chase at Kempton. 

He re-emerged in some style at Lingfield in January, seeing off Protektorat by a couple of lengths, both well clear of their four other rivals, and the run was probably seen as necessary to get him fit enough to compete in the Gold Cup. 

L’Homme Presse is a previous Festival winner, having won the Brown Advisory Chase, and he generally jumps well and has now won seven out of nine chases.

January's Lingfield win ahead of Protektorat halved his Gold Cup price, but doubts resurfaced when he was no match for Pic D'Orhy in the Ascot Chase in mid-February, so a dramatic response will be required to make an impression in this company.

Suggested Best Bet: L'Homme Presse each-way in 15:30 at Cheltenham (Gold Cup)

Of the others, there's plenty of stellar names to consider among this elite field, and who would put it past two-time Ultima winner Corach Rambler to put in a bold Gold Cup bid ahead of his Grand National defence at Aintree next month.

Gerri Colombe carries Gordon Elliott's and additional Irish hopes, and having never finished outside the top two in 11 outings (nine wins, two runners-up) it looks he might carry some each-way value.

A similar argument could be made for Bravemansgame, who has slipped below the radar a little after failing to win since the 2022 King George, albeit far from disgraced with four seonds and a third in his five subsequent outings. Might this be the time that Harry Cobden makes his mark on Cheltenham immortality for Paul Nicholls?

The easy answer would a short sharp 'no' if Galopin Des Champs is in anything like the same form as at Leopardstown over Christmas, in which case he will be extremely hard to beat this year. 

Based on the trends, however, I am suggesting an each-way bet on L'Homme Presse, despite the backward step he appeared to take at Ascot less than a month before the big day. 

READ MORE: Cheltenham Festival ITV racing tips: Best bets for Day Four on Thursday March 15