Ayr trends analysis best each-way bet: Montassib shortlisted to land Gold Cup at hefty odds

3.35 Ayr: Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (6 furlongs)

Last Saturday we tackled the 22-runner Portland Handicap and shortlisted a group of four runners which produced the winner Annaf at 7/1 (backed in from 16/1), our selection Happy Romance 4^th 12/1 (backed from 16/1) and Get It our other selection 7^th (some bookies paid 7 places) at 25/1. 

Only Dream Composer of the shortlisted runners finished out of the places, so it wasn’t a bad return all things considered.

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in this race and if Orazio finishes in the first 6 places, get a £5 Free Bet!

This week I am looking at an even larger field in the shape of the 25-runner Ayr Gold Cup, which I am using the following trends to reduce the field:

• 22/22 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
• 19/22 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
• 19/22 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
• 17/22 – Had won over 6 furlongs before
• 17/22 – Failed to win their last race
• 15/22 – Carried more than 9 stone
• 15/22 – Came from a double-figure stall
• 14/22 – Rated 90-101
• 13/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years old
• 13/22 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
• 12/22 – Had 7 or more runs that season
• 12/22 – Unplaced favourites
• 12/22 – Winning distance 1 length or less
• 11/22 – Ran at Doncaster (3), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
• 11/22 – Had raced at Ayr before
•   5/22 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
•   3/22 – Winning favourites (only 4 since 1980)
•   2/22– Ridden by Frankie Dettori
•   0/22 – Filly or mare winners
• 13/14 - from stalls 8 or higher (4/18 from stall 8)
• Since 1980 just 8 winners aged 6 or older
• The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronslea in 1930/31

The trends left a shortlist of four horses: Montassib, Lethal Levi, Paws For Thought and Significantly.

Suggested bet: Montassib each-way in the Ayr Gold Cup (15:35)

Montassib has been running in races further than six furlongs but has won over this trip before. The key to a good run here appears to be if his jockey, Ciaran Fallon can get Montassib to settle early as he has been running too freely in recent races. 

With some rain forecast it is important that Montassib can handle any ground conditions and has won on good to firm through to soft.

Lethal Levi is a frequent runner in these big handicaps and this time sports a visor for the first time to improve his concentration. He is getting back down to a winnable mark and is only a pound above his last winning mark of 92. 

My main concern for Lethal Levi is his draw in stall 6, as 13/14 winners have been drawn in 8 or higher and 15/22 have been drawn in double figures.

Paws For Thought won three back-to-back races earlier in the season and while it is unusual for Donald McCain to train a sprinter, both jockey and stable are in sparkling form.  

This recent success has left Paws For Thought high in the handicap and his official rating is still six pounds above his last winning mark, suggesting this race will be a tough ask.  

Significantly has a good record in big-field races, but sometimes struggles to get over the line with his n ose in front, with four wins to his name but nine runner-up spots. 

He is certainly capable of winning this race, but his price looks skinny considering the field size and his tendency to finish second. He was a short-head runner-up in the Portland Handicap last weekend, and those exertions may have taken their toll, so another place may be the best he can hope for here.

This is one of the hardest handicaps in the flat calendar to call, and this year is no exception and I was tempted to go with two from the four. 

In the end, however, I have decided to go with just one and that is Montassib each-way, and again don’t forget to shop around for bookies offering additional places.

READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing tips: Best bets for Ayr and Newbury