Ascot best racing tip: Trends analysis has Switch Hitter making the frame in Howden Silver Cup

15.00 Ascot:  Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (3 miles)

It was another good weekend for our trends-related tips at Cheltenham last weekend, with Latenightpass winning on Friday and Il Ridoto being pipped on the line after leading from start to finish in the December Gold Cup, when advised each-way.

This Saturday we are looking at the Howden Silver Cup Chase from Ascot and we’ve used the following trends to narrow the field:

15.00 Ascot:  Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (3 miles)

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Flegmatik finishes in the first 4 places, get a £5 Free Bet

• 16/17 – Ran within the last seven weeks 
• 11/17 – Won over at least 3m (fences) 
• 10/17 – Aged either 7 or 8 years old 
• 10/17 – Raced at Ascot previously 
•   8/17 – Won by a French-bred horse 
•   8/17 – Went on to run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners) 
•   9/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out 
•   7/17 – Favourites placed 
•   7/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting 
•   6/17 – Won at least five times over fences 
•   6/17 – Aged 7 years old 
•   5/17 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Ascot (2) last time out 
•   3/17 – Favourites (1 joint)
•   2/17 – Trained by Henry Daly 
•   2/17 – Trained by Anthony Honeyball (2 of the last 6) 
•   2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 5 runnings) 
•     7/9 - Carried over 10st-9lb

After applying the trends, I am left with a shortlist of four runners: Switch Hitter, Flegmatik, Git Maker and Hascoeur Clermont.

Suggested bet: Switch Hitter each-way in the 15:00 at Ascot

Switch Hitter from the Paul Nicholls stable has the excellent claimer Freddie Gingell on board, and he takes off a valuable five pounds. Switch Hitter has only been out of the top three once in seven chase starts; however, all his wins have had Bryony Frost riding and been in fields of eight or less (apart from one win a point-to-point race). The stable is in great form and if you ignore the single figure field statistic then Switch Hitter should be thereabouts.

Flegmatik has been increasingly hard to win with and last won in February 2022 and has only won three times out of eighteen starts over fences. There is a good chance that he can place if he completes the course, but hard to see him winning.

Git Maker won last time out and has not been out of the first two in five chase starts. He won comfortably when stepped up to open company last time but will need to improve now he is running in a Premier Handicap. Git Maker looks as if he is still improving and should be in the mix coming into the finishing straight.

Hascoeur Clermont is a bit younger than recent winners but has had nine starts over fences including beating Chambard at Cheltenham in November. Chambard was a selection for the trends column when winning the Becher Chase at 18/1 next time, so that win by Hascoeur Clermont should be respected. The major negative apart from age is the thirteen pounds rise in the weights, as that coupled with a much better race could end his chances of winning.

This has been one of the most difficult recent races from which to produce a trends-based selection, but I have decided to plump for Switch Hitter each-way, mainly due to the value odds on offer. As usual, look around for additional places from your bookmakers.