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Newbury Expert Eye: Course stats and tips for Friday's meeting

Newbury

If you're considering a punt at Newbury on Friday our expert eye article is just what you need to help you turn a profit.

With that in mind, we have some useful course stats for you to consider along with our three outright picks and the reasons behind them, while we also recommend you visit the Planet Live Centre to view the highly informative Newbury race card.

Selections:

Kuraka (13.45 Newbury)

Guerlain De Vaux (16.05 Newbury)

Commis D'Office (16.35 Newbury)

Course characteristics

Left-handed, flat and galloping, with stiff fences. Circuit 1m7f.

Top trainers with runners

Nicky Henderson, who trains nearby in Upper Lambourn, has had plenty of success here down the years, with the last five seasons alone yielding 54 winners from 240 runners for a respectable strike rate of 23%.
He has four chances to better that tally further this afternoon: Commodore Miller (15.30), Rudy Caprice (15.30), Scarpia (16.05) and Touchy Feely (17.05).
Paul Nicholls has an identical strike over the same period - 35 winners from 149 runners - and backing all his runners blind would have yielded a profit £29.83 to £1 level-stakes. He's 9-31 (29%) in the current season.
He runs three on today's card: Shearer (13.45), Gelino Bello (15.30) and Barbados Buck (16.05).

Top jockeys with rides:

As you'd expect given he rides the bulk of Henderson's runners, Nico de Boinville is the winning-most jockey here with 36 of his 154 rides (23%) ending up in the winners' enclosure.
Similarly, Harry Cobden makes the most of his opportunitues for Nicholls with his 33 winners coming from 138 rides (24), and he's an eye-catching 10-28 (36%) in the current season.

13.45 Newbury - Kuraka

If ever a horse was crying out for further it's the Jeremy Scott-trained Kuraka, who looks something to bet on now stepping up to an extended 2m4f for the conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle that opens the card.
Formerly with Gordon Elliott, who trained him to win a Limerick maiden hurdle on heavy ground, the now eight-year-old has yet to finish in front in nine outings for his current stable, but that's probably down to the combination of a high handicap mark and running over an inadequate trip.
He was last seen out running over an extended 2m here in January and, after never really travelling, he eventually got going in the straight to finish best of all behind the winner in fourth. It was a similar story on his previous outing at Fontwell (2m11/2f) where he consented to run on into third, albeit a remote one.
He's run over today's trip previously and did best when finishing a staying-on third of the 13 runners at Ffos Las in April of last year, just over four lengths behind the winner Winged Isle, who went in again subsequently, and he can now race off a 7lb lower mark.
The form of his stable is another positive with five stablemates (from 14 runners, 36%) winning in the last fortnight.

16.05 Newbury - Guerlain De Vaux

This 3m handicap hurdle is the most competitive contest on the card with 11 set to go to post and we're taking a chance on selecting Guerlain De Vaux as he lacks the experience of his rivals having had just three starts under Rules, the last twice over hurdles.
However, Oliver Sherwood's six-year-old makes up for that with his sheer talent as he has built on the promise of his sole bumper start at Chepstow in November (stayed on into fifth) to beat fellow novices at Market Rasen (won going away over 2m4f) and Catterick, where he was defying a penalty over an extended 3m1f.
He was all out at the latter track to narrowly get the better of long-time leader Gredin, but that doesn't tell the whole story as he looked beat approaching two out, with Brian Hughes kicking clear on the eventual runner-up, only for him to stay on strongly under Jonathan Burke's urgings to force his head in front close home.
That battling display bodes well for his chances now venturing into handicap company off what looks a generous mark of 121, and this more galloping track should suit him better too, so there are plenty of reasons to believe he can beat his more exposed rivals and land the hat-trick.

16.35 Newbury - Commis D'Office

Venetia Williams continues in good form and her Commis D'Office may prove good enough in this 2m handicap chase having had his wind tinkered with since finishing well beaten when last seen out at Sedgefield in January, with his previous outing offering no encouragement either.
Clearly the operation has to have had a positive effect for the ten-year-old to stand any chance this afternoon, but we can take plenty of hope for that from his last run at this track in December 2020, when he was reappearing after a long break and following wind surgery.
Running off a similar mark to today's, he opened up a clear lead jumping four out only for the lack of a previous outing to tell, causing him to tire and have no answer when the eventual easy winner Sao went past him two out, with the pair finishing clear of the rest.
Two further outings that season yielded a close up fourth in a hot Wetherby handicap and a success at Southwell, so he's certainly got the ability to win this if on song and, furthermore, he's getting weight from all his five rivals this afternoon.

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