Wincanton Expert Eye: Course stats and three horses to back for profit

Nigel Ridgway
10 March 2022

Don't bet at Wincanton on Thursday before checking out my expert eye article - it might just help you turn a profit.

With that in mind, I've landed on three horses worth backing in addition to providing some useful course stats, while I also suggest you head over to the Planet Sport Live Centre, where you'll find the highly informative Wincanton race card.

Selections:

Whisky Express (14.35 Wincanton)

Megaudais Speed (16.20) Wincanton

Blow Your Wad (17.30 Wincanton)

Course characteristics

Right-handed, mainly flat and essentially sharp in nature. Circuit is 1m3f. The fences are quite stiff and the three in the home straight, which come close together, make it difficult to come from behind.

Top trainers with runners

Paul Nicholls rarely leaves the track empty-handed with his 80 winners (from 294 runners, 27%) here over the past five seasons unsurpassed.

He runs just two this afternoon: Amenon, who is a strong favourite for the maiden hurdle (15.45) and Tahmuras, who is odds-on for the closing bumper (yet I'm taking him on).

Colin Tizzard is on the 39 winner mark for the same period - his strike rate being less impressive at 14% - and his three runners all merit respect: Could Talkaboutit (15.45), Bold Conduct (16.20) and Lanspark, who is chasing a hat-trick in the 3m handicap hurdle (16.55).

Top jockeys with rides

Harry Cobden, who rides the bulk of the Nicholls runners, is unsurprisingly leading the way with his 68 winners coming from 232 rides (28%).

Tom O'Brien is next best on 20 winners (105 rides, 19%) and nine of those have come in the current season from just 27 rides, giving him a 1-3 strike rate. He's on three relative outsiders: Chabichou Dupoitou (14.35), Off The Planet (16.55) and Ellofagetaway (16.30).

14.35 Wincanton - Whisky Express

With some tricky handicaps elsewhere on the card, this mares' novices' hurdle looks a more enticing betting opportunity and it could pay to take on the short priced favourite Aliomaana.

She has run creditably in three runs since winning at Perth in September, where she beat nothing of note, and her fifth of the nine runners at Cheltenham's Paddy Power meeting reads well enough, but she jumped poorly on that occasion and might not cope with the far less exposed Whisky Express.

Harry Fry's six-year-old looked a nice prospect when winning a Taunton bumper on the racecourse debut last March, after which she had wind surgery, and she looked in need of the experience when finishing sixth of the 11 runners on her hurdles debut at Lingfield in November.

As a half-sister to three winners including Zulu Oscar and the same stable's Ishkara Lady, she has the pedigree to win races over hurdles and with her stable in good form (3-8 in the last fortnight) and regularly amongst the winners at this track, it's worth taking a chance on her fitness.

16.20 Wincanton - Megaudais Speed

One of two wide open handicap hurdles can go to Laura Young's Megaudais Speed, who has shaped well enough in two runs since returning from a break to suggest he can double his tally over hurdles.

The latest of those came at this track in February, when doing best of those coming off the pace to finish fourth of the 18 runners, and the form of his previous fifth at Chepstow has been boosted since with the second and fourth both winning.

Those were class 4 contests, so he's dropping a grade here, and he's also become well handicapped again, having been dropped to a mark of 107, which is 1lb lower than his last winning one and 2lb lower than when finishing runner-up in another handicap here last February.

The booking of Sam Twiston-Davies, who is 4-16 on the stable runners with all his rides yielding a profit of £14.00 to £1 level-stakes, suggests that connections mean business this afternoon.

17.30 Wincanton - Blow Your Wad

Paul Nicholls' Tahmuras is bound to be popular for the closing bumper having been narrowly denied in a similar race at Ffos Las in January on his Rules debut.

However, he failed to settle at the Welsh track, which ultimately cost him the race, and might struggle to give 10lb to the year younger Blow Your Wad, who also made an encouraging start to his Rules debut when only finding Luccia to good in a Warwick bumper contested by some nicely-bred sorts.

The Nicky Henderson-trained winner is entered in a Listed bumper this weekend and the runner-up, who cost his connections £70,000 and is from the same family of the brilliant Faugheen, showed enough to indicate he can win one of these before going hurdling.

The flying form of his trainer Tom Lacey, whose last runners have all won and is 4-16 overall in the last fortnight, clinches the bet.