Tuesday Newcastle racing tip: King Of Bavaria should relish uphill task
The Bell Conductor ridden by Paul Mulrennan at Newcastle Racecourse
Tipstrr racing pundit Steve Jones has cast his eye on Tuesday's Newcastle meeting, where he expects more suitable conditions to allow King Of Bavaria to turn the tables on a couple of previous rivals.
The strong favourite in the early market is Diligent Harry, on the back of his near-miss (second of ten to Annaf, beaten a neck) in a six-furlong Listed event at Lingfield Polytrack ten days ago, a race that also featured Fivethousandtoone (sixth) and King Of Bavaria (seventh), who both line up again here.
The trio raced on level terms that day but things might be different under today's handicap conditions where King Of Bavaria is set to receive nine pounds from today's favourite while Fivethousandtoone receives another three pounds on top of that.
A 12-pound turnaround in the weights between Diligent Harry and Fivethousandtoone should be enough for the latter to turn the tables and he certainly holds value at the early prices, particularly as he is already a course and distance winner.
It also seems significant that Jason Hart, who could normally have been expected to partner Brazen Bolt today, switches to ride Fivethousandtoone for Andrew Balding, for whom he has ridden two winners and a second from only three previous rides.
If anyone knows what is required to beat both Diligent Harry and Fivethousandtoone at present it is Appleby, who trained the winner of that aforementioned Lingfield Listed event, Annaf, and who brings King Of Bavaria back for this one.
King Of Bavaria, can have that performance marked up significantly because he had a wide trip from stall nine and came widest of all into the home straight, forfeiting plenty of ground to his re-opposing rivals, who both swung into the straight on the inside.
18:30 (Newcastle) King Of Bavaria
Once hitting his stride, King Of Bavaria's momentum was checked at a crucial stage, before recovering to finish the race as well as anything, only half a length behind Fivethousandtoone at the line, a margin he can reverse despite now having to concede three pounds to his rival.
That's because today's set of conditions are much more in line with those under which King Of Bavaria ran his best races when previously trained by Aidan O'Brien, for whom he won his first two starts, both over the straight, galloping track at Naas, with its testing uphill finish.
As a three-year-old, the sprinter's best two performances for O'Brien came in handicaps at Navan and the Curragh, both similar testing gallops, when he was placed each time off a mark of 101, so he has plenty of scope for his new yard off his current mark of just 97.
King Of Bavaria got off to a decent start for his new connections when he ran over an inadequate five straight, flat furlongs at Southwell on New Year's Day.
Considering he hadn't raced for 98 days and had undergone a wind operation, as well as being gelded in the meantime, he produced a promising stable debut to finish a never-nearer fourth of seven in a Class 2 handicap.
Today's straight, uphill six furlongs look ideal for King Of Bavaria based on his bes tperformances and he looks handicapped to be winning decent events like this.
- Tip advised by Steve Jones who provides racing tips as CD Systems Daily Bargain on Tipstrr
