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Scottish Champion Hurdle: Trends suggest Anna Bunina can defend crown at Ayr

Ayr racecourse

Saturday brings one of the last big days of the British National Hunt season as Ayr hosts both the Scottish Grand National and the race under analysis here, the Scottish Champion Hurdle.

Established in 1966 and promoted to Grade Two in 1991, the Scottish Champion Hurdle is run over two miles, with nine hurdles for this year's dozen runners to negotiate.

Several horses have achieved the Cheltenham and Scottish Champion Hurdle double, although the the most recent to do so was Alderbrook back in 1995.
Horse racing analyst Andrew of Fiosrach has employed his popular method to narrow the 12-strong field to a shortlist of potential contenders.

A recent run is one of the strongest trends and by using that the field of twelve is reduced to four runners with last year's winner Anna Bunina, Milkwood, Highway One O Two and top-weight First Street.

Suggested bet: Anna Bunina to win the 14:25 race at Ayr

Milkwood and Highway One O Two were ruled out using the age statistic, which left us with two contenders.

First Street is the top weight, which makes his task difficult, but in his favour he has won over hurdles four times before, including a Grade One.

The Scottish Champion Hurdle differs from the Cheltenham equivalent, as it is a handicap, whereas at Cheltenham horses are allocated the same weight (apart from age or sex allowances).

This means that First Street must give weight to all the other runners in the race and that makes his task difficult here. 

First Street has also never won a race with more than ten runners, which coupled with his allocated weight in my view rules him out, although he could still earn a place.

Anna Bunina won this race last season and although she has an additional twelve pounds to carry this time, her claimer takes off a valuable five pounds, which I think gives Anna Bunina a good chance to defend her title here.

There is always a chance that an unexposed animal like Nemean Lion could step up here, but the selection based on the trends is Anna Bunina.
Her trainer John McConnell has won some decent races when sending his horses over to Britain and I am sure he will have Anna Bunina spot on for the race she won last year.
Her odds let us play each-way, so look around for extra places as several bookmakers are offering four or even five places.

READ MORE: Who are the top fancies for the Scottish Grand National?

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