Cheltenham Festival Champion Chase tip: Jonbon withdrawal leaves clear path for El Fabiolo

Cheltenham 15:30 (due off at 16:00): Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (2 miles)

This renewal is the big prize for the best two-mile chasers around and has produced some thrilling finishes over the years. The race is run at full tilt and the horse that jumps best usually prevails, and this is one of my favourite races at the Cheltenham Festival.

As usual we will use the trends below to reduce the field and then analyse further and hopefully find the winner.

Age 

• 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9 

Price

•   5/12 were favourites
• 11/12 were in the top 3 in the betting 

Last Run

•   6/12 won last time out before the Champion Chase 
•   9/12 ran within the last 53 days 
•   8/12 ran in the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) on their last run (4/8 won, 2 placed) 

Previous Course Form

• 11/12 had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
•   8/12 had a previous win at Cheltenham 

Previous Distance Form 

• 12/12 had at least 8 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs
• 10/12 had at least 6 wins over 15-17 furlongs 

Previous Chase Form 

• 11/12 had at least 7 previous chase runs
• 12/12 had at least 5 previous chase wins 

Rating 

• 10/12 were rated 164 or higher

Grade 1 Wins 

• 12/12 had at least 1 Grade 1 win Grade 2 Wins
• 12/12 had at least 1 Grade 2 win 

Season Form 

• 11/12 had at least 2 runs that season
• 11/12 had at least 1 win that season

El Fabiolo is the odds-on favourite from the all-conquering Willie Mullins stable and comes here with an unbeaten record over fences. He does have fewer chase runs under his belt than most previous winners and that is the only negative I can find. 

The seven-year-old has won at Grade 1 level three times, including when beating Jonbon in the Arkle Novice Chase at last season’s Festival, and he recently advertised his form further with an eight-length romp in February's Dublin Chase at Leopardstown.

Jonbon had looked a strong bet to avenge last year's Arkle defeat to El Fabiolo, but the ground has turned against him and Nickey Henderson has pulled him out (along with Shishkin in the Gold Cup on Friday).

Suggested Bet: El Fabiolo to win the 15:30 (16:00) at Cheltenham (Champion Chase)

Beyond those two, 2022 Arkle winner Edwardstone has to merit respect, while in a field of this standing there are plenty of capable performers carrying hefty prices, which carried some decent each-way options until Jonbon's withdrawal reduced the field to seven runners.

Elixir De Nutz notably got the better of Jonbon in the rearranged Clarence House at this venue in January, although Jonbon has excuses after a mistake four out, and it would be a surprise if they finish in that order here if the latter keeps out of trouble.

Boothill is not in the same class as most of these and is also much better at going right-handed, with all but one of his seven career wins coming on right-handed courses (Cheltenham is left- handed.) 

Harry Fry's nine-year-old is more likely to wait until after Cheltenham for a big prize going right-handed, and will hope to bounce back from his recent tumble at Newbury in early February.

In the absence of Jonbon, this could turn into the proverbial two-horse race between El Fabiolo and Edwardstone and based on a form analysis alone we would expect El Fabiolo to take this.