Cheltenham ante-post tips: Blazing Khal and Boxox Has each-way hopes in wide-open Stayers' Hurdle

Thursday March 14 15.30 Cheltenham: Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (3 miles)

This long distance hurdle race continually provides a fantastic finish, and we often see the same horses run for multiple years. Increasingly the quality of runners is improving, but you need a true stayer with a high cruising speed to win the race.

I have used the trends below to reduce the field to a more manageable number for further analysis:

Age 

• 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8 

Price

•   3/12 were favourites
•   5/12 were in the top 3 in the betting 

Last Run

•   6/12 had won on their last run before the Stayers Hurdle
• 10/12 had their last run within 80 days
• 5/12 ran in the Cleeve Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out (3/5 won, 1 placed) 

Previous Course Form 

• 11/12 had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
•   7/12 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham 

Previous Distance Form 

•   9/12 had at least 3 runs over 23-25 furlongs
•   8/12 had at least 2 wins over 23-25 furlongs 

Previous Hurdle Form 

• 11/12 had at least 8 previous runs over hurdles
• 10/12 had at least 4 previous wins over hurdles 

Rating 

•   9/12 were rated 156 or higher 

Grade 1 Wins

•   9/12 had at least 1 previous grade 1 win 
•   9/12 had at least 1 previous grade 2 win 

Season Form 

• 11/12 had at least 2 runs that season
•   8/12 had at least 1 win that season.

Blazing Khal disappointed in this race last season, finishing sixth behind Sire Du Berlais, but importantly he has won twice around this course, including once over this very trip. 

Blazing Khal is lightly raced and obviously has had issues in the past, some of which resurfaced when pulled up on season debut at Navan in mid-February, but as long as there was nothing seriously amiss, then hopefully that should have blown a few cobwebs away in time for the main event.

Suggested Bet: Blazing Khal each-way in the Stayers' Hurdle (March 14)

Botox Has lacks a Grade 1 win but has won at Grade 2 level this season so might just be improving. He has also won at Cheltenham and over three miles, but might be just below this level, especially as this looks to be a particularly competitive field.

He finished sixth of seven runners behind Noble Yeats in the Cleeve Hurdle here in January, but bounced back impressively to land the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock, which appears to set up up for a good tilt here.

This is a hugely difficult race to pick a winner and several of the well-fancied horses at the head of the market were ruled out by one or more of the trends, including Teauphoo, Crambo and Irish Point, even though they clearly have the credentials to put themselves in the mix 

Using the trends, I am suggesting Blazing Khal as an each-way bet and , as always, make sure you use a bookmaker offering non-runner money back (NRMB).

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