Newmarket racing tip: Trends suggest Frankness is the one to beat in Bet365 Handicap
July course Newmarket
Andrew of Fiosrach will be using his top trends analysis to asses the action from the Newmarket July meeting starting with the Bet365 Handicap on Thursday.
15:00 Newmarket (July): Bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
Perotto, our trends pick for the Coral Challenge on Saturday won the race at a starting price of 5/1 having been 8/1 at the time of writing. The application of a hood and an excellent ride by Tom Marquand seemed to galvanise Perotto back to his best.
This week I will be covering a race each day from the Newmarket July meeting starting on Thursday with the Bet365 Handicap, which has seventeen runners declared.
I have used the trends below to reduce the field and hopefully find the winner:
- 16/17 - Had won no more than 3 times before
- 15/17 - Didn't win last time out
- 15/17 - Raced in the last 4 weeks
- 15/17 - Had won over 6f before
- 14/17 - Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
- 14/17 - Carried 8-12 or less
- 13/17 - Winning distance - 1 length or less
- 13/17 - Came from a double-figure stall
- 12/17 - Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season
- 11/17 - Unplaced favourites
- 8/17 - Finished unplaced last time out
- 4/17 - Trained by Andrew Balding
- 4/17 - Ridden by David Probert
- 0/17 - Winning favourites
The application of the trends left me with three runners:
Rousing Encore has not won since his second and third career starts and has just been gelded having lost his subsequent nine runs.
He did run well a couple of times in these nine races including coming second in a Group 2 and running reasonably well at Listed level. If gelding him sorts out his temperament and improves focus I expect him to go close at this level, but he's a risk.
Suggested bet:
Frankness each-way in the 15:00 at Newmarket
Frankness ran well to finish fifth in the Palace of Holyrood Palace Stakes and that is his best performance to date. He has only previously won at Class 4 level, so needs to improve again to win this.
His stable has a superb record at this meeting, especially in the three-year-old handicaps like this race, which Andrew Balding has won four times in the last seventeen runnings.
Ferrous has been very consistent in his career to date and remains open to improvement having only raced seven times winning twice at a lower level.
He does get in here off an extremely low weight coupled with his young jockey taking off another three pounds.
The main thing that concerns me about Ferrous is his low draw, which makes things tough, but he may run into a place.
There are several unexposed types in this race, and they could prove to be better than the handicap class. For example, Tajalla and Washington Heights.
I have decided to trust Andrew Balding here and make Frankness the each-way way selection.
Suggested bet: Frankness each-way in the 15:00 at Newmarket
