Kentucky Derby: Trends suggest Mandarin Hero is a good each-way selection

23.57 Churchill Downs - 1m2f Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) (3yo) (Main Track) (Dirt)

The Kentucky Derby will be run just before midnight on Saturday 6th May in the beautiful state of Kentucky. There was a bit of a spoiler in the race title!

United States racing is not my main area of expertise, but anyone can use trends analysis to narrow down the field and luckily there are plenty of sites offering a range of trends on the big race.

I used the trends below to narrow the field before applying a few minor trends to finalise the selection-making process:

Using the trends above and focusing on the Beyer statistic of +100 speed rating and those horses shipping from California, I ended up with a shortlist of the following runners: Forte, Practical Move and Two Phil's are all +100 on Beyer, while Reincarnate and Skinner are also of interest.

Forte has won his last five starts with four of those coming in Grade 1 contests. This makes him a worthy favourite and it would not be a surprise to see him win the Derby.

At longer odds, our original each-way pick would have been Practical Move, but he has been withdrawn after recording a high temperature.